A Bumpy Ride To Reach Cooler Air

TO VIEW 2012 SUMMER CONTEST ENTRIES, CLICK ON IT IN THE NAVIGATION BAR ABOVE.

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The deadline to enter the summer contest is tonight (Tuesday) at 9PM.  Make sure you follow the instructions for contest #1 and #2.  You can find all the information if you scroll down 2 posts.

I didn't buy it last week, but it's looking like a reality now.  After near record breaking high temperatures this late May, we'll kick June off with well below average temperatures.  By the way, this meteorological spring (March, April, and May) will be the hottest ever for Little Rock in several categories.  More on that later.

On my facebook page, Daren Bolin, promised me he will name his next kid after me if the cool down actually happened.  Thought I would forget Daren? Heck no!  I'll settle for a pet though.   I'm flexible.

A frontal boundary will reach the state today, but stall out.  This will at least bring a few clouds and small rain chances.  It looks like clusters of storms may develop through Wednesday as the front meanders around with waves of energy moving overhead.  The front will finally get a kick to the east Thursday as a strong wave of low pressure develops along the front.  This will bring our best rain chance followed by a very, very noticeable cool down which will also wipe the moisture out of the air late this week.  Don't get too use to it, another warm up will get underway shortly afterwards.  That's the "Debbie Downer" inside of me.  Sorry!

There could be a severe element to this transition.  The clusters of thunderstorms will be difficult to exactly pinpoint and time, but they usually bring lots of rain and wind.  Sometimes you can get some hail with them as well.  I was looking at hi res modeling Tuesday morning and it shows one cluster developing NW of the state tonight and moving southeastward.  This will be the focus for rain development as well Wednesday as storms could develop along any left over boundaries.

Check out the maps below...

This hi res model shows a cluster of storms tonight developing over OK and KS.  This would dive south and southeastward into western AR.  The eastern extent will probably be limited if this does occur.

The model also develops another cluster of storms late Wednesday into Thursday morning NW of the state, then crosses Arkansas during the overnight.  The main threat will be very heavy rain and wind.  Some hail is possible.

This is the outlook for severe weather Wednesday.  Notice western AR could see the effects of these clusters of storms.

The slight risk expands to the southeast half Thursday.

HPC places must of the western AR in an area which could see 2'' or more of rainfall with lesser amounts further east.