Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Tropical Trouble?


There's no doubt we're in hurricane season and we've already had 2 named systems.  While looking at the long range models this morning, the European and the GFS both show a tropical feature moving into the Gulf of Mexico late next week.  It's way too early to pinpoint any path or even if it will truly develop, but it's something to watch!  At this very early stage, the GFS takes the system into the eastern Gulf while the Euro takes it to Texas.  That's a huge spread!

For a tropical system to have a direct impact on Arkansas, it usually must make landfall along the northern Texas or Louisiana coastline.  If we stay to the right of the center, that's when things can get troublesome, but like I said, there's a ton of uncertainty and I just wanted to throw this info. out there.

This is the GFS valid late Thursday, June 21st.  Notice the surface low in the eastern Gulf with heavy precipitation amounts surrounding it.  If this path verified, there would be little if any impact on Arkansas Weather.
The European model valid late Friday June 22nd, shows a closed area of low pressure (black circle) in the western Gulf of Mexico.  This path would likely not have a direct impact on our weather.  Like I said, it's wayyyyy to early to pinpoint if this is even going to happen.  However, it's that time of year and if anything does get into the Gulf, we must start to pay attention and I'll keep you updated.

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