Thursday, July 05, 2012

How Do You Spell Relief? C-O-L-D F-R-O-N-T


In the previous blog video post below, I discussed the possibilities the Canadian model presented next week.  NOAA first put out there the idea the week of July 8th had a chance at being cooler and wetter for areas that are blazing hot now.  Most models are now on board with the pattern change!!!!

The ridge of high pressure parked over our section of the country bringing us record heat will shift to the west.  This will allow a trough to develop across the central and eastern United States.  The northerly flow aloft will help push a front into the state.  Rain chances will begin to increase Sunday and Monday.  THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOU WILL GET RAIN!!!!!!  However, these are the best chances we have seen in almost a month.  Right now, the threat for severe weather is low, but a strong storm will be possible.  If the front moves south, we can expect to get into some drier air as well and the GFS model predicts this.  Wouldn't that be nice?!?!  Rain followed by dry air with highs in the 80s/90s and lows in the 50s/60s.  I'm not saying that's set in stone, but it is within the realm of possibilities.

Check out the model maps below.

This is the GFS next Tuesday PM.  Notice the surface high near Lake Michigan.  The clockwise flow around it is sending in northeasterly winds at the surface behind the cold front.  The small green arrows are wind barbs and they are pointing to the direction in which the wind is coming from.
For the same time period, the darker green indicates lower humidity values here at the surface.  Notice those are wedging in from the northeast as that surface high builds in.
As far as rain chances are concerned, the GFS shows scattered storm activity with the front Monday afternoon.  AGAIN, THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOU WILL GET RAIN, BUT THESE WILL BE THE BEST CHANCES IN A LONG TIME!!!!
HPC says there could be more than 2'' through central AR next week.  I'm not saying this is going to happen!!!!!!!!!!!!  But like I said, it's the best chance we've had in awhile.  It does look like SOME areas will get beneficial rain!


tboyce1979 said...

We need rain so bad, it's like the excitement before a snowstorm!!

Anonymous said...

No, nothing compares to the excitement before a snowstorm. Nothing. At all.

Anonymous said...

Last time the models had central arkansas with the best chance of heavy rain. Northern arkansas got Hammered! Lol