Friday, July 06, 2012

Arkansas May Have To Take A Chill Pill With A Glass Of Rainwater

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

Long title, but you get the point! The pattern change we discussed here last weekend looks likely to happen.  Read the previous 2 posts for more analysis.  When I woke up this morning (Friday), I looked at the HPC 5 day outlook for rainfall and it showed widespread 2'' + amounts for most of the state.  I'm having a tough time believing that for a couple reasons.  First, this maps updates twice daily and it always seems to reflect the latest version of the GFS model which runs 4 times a day and can be quite erratic.  Second,  once you're in a drought, it's tough to break it!  While I expect rain in the state, I don't want you to be disappointed if you don't get as much as projected in this map.  Due to the convective nature of the expected rainfall next week, it's more likely some places see a bunch of rain while others do not.  I hope I'm wrong and everyone gets the rain.  Also, I expect some of these storms to become strong and maybe even severe.  I do NOT expect an outbreak at this time whatsoever, but I just want everyone to be aware of that since it is summertime and many spend it in pools and on the lakes.  Be prepared to get out of the water if you hear thunder or see lightning.

As far as temperatures are concerned, with the clouds and rain around, readings will be much lower.  I expect some 80s up north to 90s south.  If we can get the front to push all the way through, drier air will work into the state eventually making for some awesome overnight lows.  We'll see about that, but right now, BRING ON THE RAIN!!!!!!

THIS IS THE LATEST MAP FROM THE HPC SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF 2'' + AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  I SPEAK FOR ALL OF ARKANSAS WHEN I SAY, I HOPE THIS VERIFIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  HOWEVER, REMEMBER THESE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AND IT COULD END UP BEING A SITUATION WHERE THERE ARE BIG RAINFALL WINNERS AND BIG LOSERS!!!!!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

But of course, it's probably going to heat straight back up after a few days. I'm being pessimistic here, but it's usually true.

Anonymous said...

Wow! Raining here in Bryant, you know we haven't had rain for a long time when it looks THIS beautiful outside!

Anonymous said...

FINALLY the 7 day forecast looks more reasonable!

Anonymous said...

I wonder why 74 degrees is the magic number for no heat index? Every time I look at current temps, 74 degrees will have no heat index, but 75 will.

Octo-BRRR