Sunday, October 07, 2012

3 Seasons in 24 Hours. More Wild Weather To Come?


Thanks to FLW Outdoors for this hail video shot in Russellville Saturday, Oct. 6th.

The 2nd piece of video comes from KATV viewer Lori Dobbins of a hail storm in north central Arkansas Saturday.

More about the upcoming weather pattern below the video.

I think we went through 3 seasons within just 24 hours.  Spring (warmth and thunderstorms), fall (cooler air), and winter (sleet in northern Arkansas)

I want to jump ahead to next weekend.  There is a piece of energy sitting off the west coast of the United States and it's closed off from the main flow.  In terms of big weather makers, this has POTENTIAL to be our next one.  It's too early to say for sure due to MANY uncertainties.  How does this come out into the plains, what kind of airmass will be in place ahead of it, timing of the associated front, etc?

I do want everyone to pay attention due to 1 of the possibilities... thunderstorms and severe weather.   Again, it's wayyyyyyyy to early to say this will happen, but let's watch it.  We are entering our secondary severe weather season and this scenario needs to be addressed.  Check out the maps below....

Here's the upper level map next Thursday.  See the big upper level low in southern California.  This is what I'll be watching!  This is forecast to pull into the plains and drag a front through the state.  Again, this could come through with just some rain and a few storms or something a bit stronger.  Entering our secondary severe weather season, let's keep an eye on it!
This is the GFS next Sunday afternoon showing CAPE... Convective Available Potential Energy ( instability).  You can see how that's lining up along and ahead of the front.  The center of low pressure at the surface and aloft will go north of the state.  Again, too early for any specifics.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Are we still due for an El Nino this winter? Not according to some accuweather forum members. Wondering if any arwx bloggers have any verification.

NOAA Winter Guidance