Sunday, October 14, 2012

Cut Off Low... Look Out Below

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I apologize for not blogging lately.  I have taken a few days of vacation to fish and attend my 20 year high school reunion.  In case you didn't know, I'm a 1992 graduate of Little Rock Catholic High.  It was wonderful seeing my old(er) classmates, hear what they are doing, and share memories.  

Our guidance counselor and religion teacher, Brother Richard, is still at the school and took some of us on a tour Saturday afternoon after a reunion mass.   The picture above includes him and a few of my classmates taken below our 1992 class picture on the wall at CHS.  It would be impossible to describe how wonderful a person Brother Richard is to the students of CHS past and present.  This is a man who has dedicated his life to Christ and the students who pass through those hallways.  If any of you have a boy who has gone through CHS, you know what I'm talking about.  If you have a son soon to attend, Brother Richard is one of the greatest assets to Catholic High. 

Now onto the weather.  The models ALL agree on a good dose of cool, fall air.  It should start to arrive by the middle of the week.  After that, there are some disagreements that could have major impacts on the long range forecast.  It seems like we get rain every Friday night and there's one model pointing in that direction while others do not.  

An area of low pressure aloft will cut off from the main jet stream.  These are ALWAYS difficult to predict the placement and movement especially this far out in the forecast.  When you see the models below, you will understand what I'm talking about.

The closer that low cuts off to Arkansas, the higher the chance for "wrap around moisture".  The proximity of it will tend to increase the chance for occasional cloud cover, light rain chances, and some wind.  This is not only important in forecasting for next Friday night, but it will also help to dictate where our temperatures will go.  More clouds and wind will keep overnight lows from really dropping off.  This is important when forecasting the first possible frost or freeze and the end of the growing season.  If skies can clear out and winds lighten up behind the front, a greater chance will exist for readings to drop to levels that could produce frosty conditions and maybe a freeze.  Stay tuned.  

Here are the maps.

This is the European model valid late Wednesday showing the front slicing through the state with some rain and thunderstorms.
The European model cuts off the area of low pressure aloft just north of AR late Friday.  If it cuts off this close to the state, the winds will stay up, occasional clouds will pass by, and even a few showers.  This indicates NOTHING heavy in terms of precipitation, but many times, little spokes of energy can rotate around the parent low and spark off some light showers.  If this model verifies, that will have to be watched.
The GFS takes the low further to the north into the Great Lakes by late Friday.  This would bring clear and cold conditions to the state Friday night.
The CMC keeps the low to the northeast with dry and chilly weather Friday night

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

When do we get a break from this annoying, warm weather? At the end of this week, sure we get a cool dose of air with upper 60's, but then it warms right back up to upper 70's! Sick of this heat, it's supposed to be fall. I'm ready for cold weather and overcast skies with breezy conditions, as always.

Anonymous said...

I just had to say this...I go to the gym Pulse and occasionally I see a man who looks JUST like Todd. Except much taller.

NOAA Winter Guidance