Friday, January 11, 2013

A Whole Lot Of Nothing?

It's Friday and the data continues to struggle to settle on a solution in regards to next week.  There's the GFS which is mostly cold and DRY.  The European model shows additional waves of moisture with cold air in place.  It's important to note here that IF the European model is correct, any additional moisture would be light and we're NOT talking about any major storm at this point.  Of course, I have very little trust in the data, but that's what it shows today.  With that said, a little ice and snow can cause concerns.  Personally, I don't want the ice.  I would much, much rather have snowfall.  For all of you snow lovers out there, don't get upset.  There's still a ton of winter in front of us.

Here are the maps.

While there will be a chance for a brief change over across northwest Arkansas to a wintry mix late Saturday into Sunday morning, look at the newest GFS valid at 3 PM Sunday.  All of the moisture is east of the Mississippi River.   After a very mild Friday and Saturday, temperatures are tumbling according to this as high pressure brings in north to northeasterly winds.
By late Monday, there will be additional waves of moisture according to the GFS, but it's all east of Arkansas.  It's cold and dry here.
The European model at 6PM Sunday shows precip. lingering across eastern Arkansas longer than the GFS.  The western fringe of this could be a light wintry mix if this verifies, but no major storm at all.
Here are the real differences.  This is the Euro at noon Monday.  Look at the additional wave of moisture moving through central and southern Arkansas.  This is much further to the west compared to the GFS.  IF this verifies, it's nothing too heavy and not a major storm, but it would be a light wintry mix on the northern fringe.
Here's another difference between the two major long range models.  The Euro late next Thursday continues to bring the upper low across the state with precipitation.  This is warmer compared to yesterday's run, but it still has the storm.  The GFS.... NOTHING.
The bigger story at this point looks to be the excessive rainfall.  HPC is projecting more than 3 inches across much of the state Saturday into Sunday.  With the ground already saturated, localized flooding could be a concern.
In summary, despite the differences in the two long range models, the picture is a little clearer in 1 regard.  According to this latest round of data, IF we get anything frozen, it will not be a major storm.  Remember though, a little ice can cause driving problems however.  If anything changes, I'll let you know.

3 comments:

jimmylee42 said...

Todd-This winter is starting to remind me of some of the winters in the 60's. The winter of 59-60 is the one that comes to mind. We got over 26 inches of snow that winter if you count the month of March. With all that snow the winter never had bitter cold (highs in the low 20s or lows in the low teens or single digits). It did have record snow and the month of March was the coldest on record. The arctic air had a hard time transporting south that winter but there was enough cold air available for several snow events.

Will said...

Good morning, I still like my previous post regarding a possible arctic outbreak beginning on or around the 20th of the month. More model to model run consistency indicating this scenario. PNA goes way positive, NAO goes way negative and the on-going and very significant SSW event are all indicators. Not saying it will be as cold as '89 but it's going to get might COLD. Maybe even snowy.....

Anonymous said...

Isn't anybody else wondering what happened to that extreme cold that was supposed to come mid January? Joe Bastardi had been tweeting about it a lot in the beginning of Jan, but now, no hint of it at all.

NOAA Winter Guidance