You may have noticed I didn't update the blog Wednesday after my initial morning post. The data throughout the day suggested more rain than anything next week with the only chance for any wintry weather across the far northwest. While that scenario is still quite possible, the overnight run of the European model throws a curve ball in many forecasts.... IF TRUE. I alluded to the possibility the models just don't have it right yet and I still don't think they have it right. You have to be kidding yourself if you looked the models Wednesday as said, "yep, that's what's going to happen next week."
Remember the Christmas Day storm? Some models several days prior to the event showed severe thunderstorms here ( I never bought into that thank goodness). Each day was a different track, even the day before. The NAM was horrible in that forecast. Again, my point, confidence is low in this type of pattern as each run of the model shows different solutions.
Here's what we do know from history. Arctic air is usually shallow by the time it gets to Arkansas, the Ozarks CAN delay the subfreezing air from getting into central Arkansas, and a southwesterly flow aloft usually is unsettled!
I want to make it very, very clear that what I'm posting here is NOT our forecast, but just things we watch in the weather center. Once confidence builds on any given solution, I'll let you know. This could turn out to be just plain rain, ice, or NOTHING! I hate to sound so vague, but it's the truth. The European model sounded alarm bells last night and let me show it to you.
|But wait, there's more. Another wave late Tuesday could move through southeast Arkansas, however, the Euro shows most of the state ABOVE freezing at this point.|
|And here's the GFS next Monday morning.... NOTHING!!!! It's cold and dry. See the forecasting challenges now!?!? Where's the advil?|
Thanks for reading!