Thursday, May 02, 2013

Historic Cold and Snow Very Possible


A potentially historic cold air mass is on its way to Arkansas and I still have no changes to what I have been telling you since last weekend.  I'll show you new and very interesting model data below including "Futurecast".  The overnight run Thursday shows highs NOT getting out of the 40s in central Arkansas Friday.  Most of the other data has our temperatures in the 50s so we'll see how it performs.  Another big story will be the strong, cold winds causing wind chill readings to drop into the 20s and 30s across the state.  Maybe even upper teens for northwest Arkansas.  Also, listed below will be all the potential records we could break.

This upper level low will likely park itself over Arkansas and Missouri dropping our temperatures to record levels.  The slow movement will keep the cool around through most of the weekend, and yes, snow will be possible across northwest Arkansas.  There's even some data saying flakes could be seen further south.  Unbelievable to think kids will be out for summer break in the SAME month snow falls in the state.  

Looking past this weekend, temperatures will warm up, BUT there are signs more cool air could surge south, but probably not as cold as what we're going to see.


"Futurecast" shows temperatures well into the low to mid 40s Friday morning.  Wind chill readings will be in the 30s.  BUNDLE UP!!!

Look at 3PM Friday.  This is suppose to be the warmest time of the day.  Most of the metro is in 40s still!!!!  Hot Springs and Malvern could reach 50.  Other data suggest low to mid 50s

This would be historic as well.  "Futurecast" shows readings in the mid and upper 30s Saturday morning.   This would be the coldest ever for the month of May.
"Futurecast" shows another historic event.... SNOW.  If flakes fall, it would be the latest ever in recorded state weather history.

The overnight run of the GFS even shows flakes could fly further south Saturday morning as the low sits and spins.  While the chance of this happening is low, it can't be completely ruled out.  However, according to the GFS,  it's far northwest Arkansas which has the best chance for some snow/sleet.


The following is from the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock

                                         FORECAST/RECORD LOW
 STATION                         MAY 3RD        MAY 4TH        MAY 5TH
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------
 LITTLE ROCK                    44/41 1929   39/40 IN 1971   44/43 IN 1945
 JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB   44/41 2004   39/40 IN 1976   43/43 IN 2005
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK              44/43 2005   39/46 IN 1976   43/46 IN 1979
 RUSSELLVILLE                   41/36 1967   38/35 IN 1954   42/37 IN 1945
 MOUNT IDA                      39/32 1929   38/31 IN 1954   42/32 IN 1945
 HARRISON                       37/31 1911   33/30 IN 1907   39/33 IN 1917
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT             44/37 2005   38/39 IN 2011   40/38 IN 1944
 PINE BLUFF                     45/41 1918   40/41 IN 1954   45/42 IN 1976
 MONTICELLO                     46/41 1960   42/40 IN 1971   46/38 IN 1957
 HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT            42/41 2005   39/40 IN 1976   44/41 IN 2005
 STUTTGART AIRPORT              46/43 2005   38/45 IN 1945   42/44 IN 1945
 ARKADELPHIA                    44/39 2005   40/38 IN 1976   45/39 IN 1945
 BRINKLEY                       46/32 1909   39/37 IN 1954   42/38 IN 1945
 BOONEVILLE                     38/35 2005   37/33 IN 1954   42/37 IN 1945
 CAMDEN                         44/38 1929   41/38 IN 1954   45/39 IN 1925
 CALICO ROCK                    42/30 1976   37/30 IN 1976   38/32 IN 1976
 CONWAY                         44/38 1918   38/36 IN 1954   42/41 IN 1957
 GILBERT                        38/30 2005   35/29 IN 1997   39/33 IN 1945
 HOT SPRINGS NATIONAL PARK      42/34 1909   38/36 IN 1954   44/39 IN 1907
 HARDY                          42/36 2005   36/36 IN 2005   40/37 IN 1917
 MENA                           36/36 2011   38/35 IN 1954   44/38 IN 1945
 SEARCY                         45/37 1929   38/36 IN 1976   40/40 IN 1954
 MOUNTAIN HOME 1NNW             40/35 2005   35/30 IN 1954   38/34 IN 1917
 MALVERN                        45/35 1903   40/35 IN 1976   45/40 IN 1954
 MARSHALL                       38/33 2005   35/31 IN 1954   39/35 IN 1954
 SHERIDAN                       45/40 1960   40/34 IN 1954   45/38 IN 1954
 STAR CITY/CANE CREEK           46/41 1967   40/37 IN 1976   45/45 IN 2011
 NEWPORT                        46/41 1976   38/37 IN 1954   41/40 IN 1954
 CLARKSVILLE                    39/35 1976   37/33 IN 1954   40/35 IN 1954

AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF TYING OR EXCEEDING ALL-TIME
RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. STATIONS THAT COULD COME CLOSE ARE LISTED
BELOW.

 STATION                        MAY ALL-TIME RECORD LOW
 ------------------------------------------------------
 LITTLE ROCK                       39 MAY  1ST 1903
 JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB      39 MAY  7TH 1992
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK                 40 MAY  2ND 1994...MAY 2ND 1978
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT                36 MAY  7TH 1944
 PINE BLUFF                        36 MAY  2ND 1909
 HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT               39 MAY 13TH 1997
 STUTTGART AIRPORT                 41 MAY  1ST 2005
 MENA                              31 MAY  1ST 1903
 STAR CITY/CANE CREEK              37 MAY  4TH 1976
 CLARKSVILLE                       33 MAY  4TH 1954


What about snowfall?  Thanks to Brian Smith at the NWS for providing the following information.

The latest accumulating snow was .2'' in Corning, AR set on April 24th, 1910
The latest flakes seen in Arkansas was in Fayetteville, Gravette, and Harrion on April 30th, 1903

The last accumulating snow in Little Rock was .8'' on March 30th, 1987
The last snow was seen in Little Rock was April 19th, 1983.

Top 10 coldest May temperatures in Little Rock
  1. May 1, 1903 39 degrees
  2. May 4, 1971 40 degrees
  3. May 2, 1963 40 degrees
  4. May 12, 1960 40 degrees
  5. May 2, 1909 40 degrees
  6. May 2, 1994 41 degrees
  7. May 9, 1976 41 degrees
  8. May 1, 1963 41 degrees
  9. May 4, 1954 41 degrees  
  10. May 3, 1929 41 degrees
Top 10 coldest daily high temperature
  1. May 2, 1994 52 degrees
  2. May2, 2011 53 degrees
  3. May 4, 1935 53 degrees
  4. May 4 1907 53 degrees
  5. May 21, 1892 53 degrees
  6. May 1, 1994 56 degrees
  7. May 28, 1992 56 degrees
  8. May 5, 1935 56 degrees
  9. May 10, 1924 56 degrees
  10. May 3, 2002 57 degrees
The one I'll really be watching is Saturday morning.  I think that's when we'll have the best potential hit 39 degrees or colder which would be the coldest temperature ever recorded in Little Rock weather history dating back to the 1870s.

Let's put this into perspective.  That record is May 1, 1903!!!!!! 


  • The President of the United States was Theodore Roosevelt
  •  Pepsi company formed
  •  Niagera Falls runs out of water because of a drought
  •  Wright Brothers make 1st flight at Kittyhawk
  • Loaf of bread was 4 cents
  • Milk was 2 cents a gallon
  • A stamp was 2 cents
  • The average cost of a home was 4,000 dollars

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Great post as usual, Todd.

I think it's always funny to see anyone and their dog come out and say "so much for global warming" when events like this happen. I don't personally think it disproves anything.

I'm still doing a lot of research on the climate and how weather patterns work, but your blog is a great resource for the Arkansas weather geek!

Octo-BRRR