It was greeted with skepticism when I sent out a tweet last weekend saying the pattern late this week looked truly amazing. I have never seen something as wild as this in early May and the history books prove it.
I have no changes to what I have been telling you since last Saturday. Record lows will be challenged and there could be flakes of snow falling within our states borders. The most likely place for this is northwest Arkansas.
I want to use this post to show you what our model "Futurecast" says and also list many of the records which are in jeopardy of being broken.
The following is from the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock
FORECAST/RECORD LOW STATION MAY 3RD MAY 4TH MAY 5TH ------------------------------------------------------------------------- LITTLE ROCK 44/41 1929 39/40 IN 1971 44/43 IN 1945 JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB 44/41 2004 39/40 IN 1976 43/43 IN 2005 NORTH LITTLE ROCK 44/43 2005 39/46 IN 1976 43/46 IN 1979 RUSSELLVILLE 41/36 1967 38/35 IN 1954 42/37 IN 1945 MOUNT IDA 39/32 1929 38/31 IN 1954 42/32 IN 1945 HARRISON 37/31 1911 33/30 IN 1907 39/33 IN 1917 BATESVILLE AIRPORT 44/37 2005 38/39 IN 2011 40/38 IN 1944 PINE BLUFF 45/41 1918 40/41 IN 1954 45/42 IN 1976 MONTICELLO 46/41 1960 42/40 IN 1971 46/38 IN 1957 HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT 42/41 2005 39/40 IN 1976 44/41 IN 2005 STUTTGART AIRPORT 46/43 2005 38/45 IN 1945 42/44 IN 1945 ARKADELPHIA 44/39 2005 40/38 IN 1976 45/39 IN 1945 BRINKLEY 46/32 1909 39/37 IN 1954 42/38 IN 1945 BOONEVILLE 38/35 2005 37/33 IN 1954 42/37 IN 1945 CAMDEN 44/38 1929 41/38 IN 1954 45/39 IN 1925 CALICO ROCK 42/30 1976 37/30 IN 1976 38/32 IN 1976 CONWAY 44/38 1918 38/36 IN 1954 42/41 IN 1957 GILBERT 38/30 2005 35/29 IN 1997 39/33 IN 1945 HOT SPRINGS NATIONAL PARK 42/34 1909 38/36 IN 1954 44/39 IN 1907 HARDY 42/36 2005 36/36 IN 2005 40/37 IN 1917 MENA 36/36 2011 38/35 IN 1954 44/38 IN 1945 SEARCY 45/37 1929 38/36 IN 1976 40/40 IN 1954 MOUNTAIN HOME 1NNW 40/35 2005 35/30 IN 1954 38/34 IN 1917 MALVERN 45/35 1903 40/35 IN 1976 45/40 IN 1954 MARSHALL 38/33 2005 35/31 IN 1954 39/35 IN 1954 SHERIDAN 45/40 1960 40/34 IN 1954 45/38 IN 1954 STAR CITY/CANE CREEK 46/41 1967 40/37 IN 1976 45/45 IN 2011 NEWPORT 46/41 1976 38/37 IN 1954 41/40 IN 1954 CLARKSVILLE 39/35 1976 37/33 IN 1954 40/35 IN 1954 AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF TYING OR EXCEEDING ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. STATIONS THAT COULD COME CLOSE ARE LISTED BELOW. STATION MAY ALL-TIME RECORD LOW ------------------------------------------------------ LITTLE ROCK 39 MAY 1ST 1903 JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB 39 MAY 7TH 1992 NORTH LITTLE ROCK 40 MAY 2ND 1994...MAY 2ND 1978 BATESVILLE AIRPORT 36 MAY 7TH 1944 PINE BLUFF 36 MAY 2ND 1909 HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT 39 MAY 13TH 1997 STUTTGART AIRPORT 41 MAY 1ST 2005 MENA 31 MAY 1ST 1903 STAR CITY/CANE CREEK 37 MAY 4TH 1976 CLARKSVILLE 33 MAY 4TH 1954
What about snowfall? Thanks to Brian Smith at the NWS for providing the following information.
The latest accumulating snow was .2'' in Corning, AR set on April 24th, 1910
The latest flakes seen in Arkansas was in Fayetteville, Gravette, and Harrion on April 30th, 1903
The last accumulating snow in Little Rock was .8'' on March 30th, 1987
The last snow was seen in Little Rock was April 19th, 1983.
Top 10 coldest May temperatures in Little Rock
- May 1, 1903 39 degrees
- May 4, 1971 40 degrees
- May 2, 1963 40 degrees
- May 12, 1960 40 degrees
- May 2, 1909 40 degrees
- May 2, 1994 41 degrees
- May 9, 1976 41 degrees
- May 1, 1963 41 degrees
- May 4, 1954 41 degrees
- May 3, 1929 41 degrees
- May 2, 1994 52 degrees
- May2, 2011 53 degrees
- May 4, 1935 53 degrees
- May 4 1907 53 degrees
- May 21, 1892 53 degrees
- May 1, 1994 56 degrees
- May 28, 1992 56 degrees
- May 5, 1935 56 degrees
- May 10, 1924 56 degrees
- May 3, 2002 57 degrees
Let's put this into perspective. That record is May 1, 1903!!!!!!
- The President of the United States was Theodore Roosevelt
- Pepsi company formed
- Niagera Falls runs out of water because of a drought
- Wright Brothers make 1st flight at Kittyhawk
- Loaf of bread was 4 cents
- Milk was 2 cents a gallon
- A stamp was 2 cents
- The average cost of a home was 4,000 dollars
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| Futurecast is a little slower than other models. The front is moving into central Arkansas Thursday evening at 10 PM. Look at the temperature in Hot Springs at 58 degrees and Stuttgart at 66 degrees. The leading edge of the cold air is moving in from the west. |
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| Futurecast indicates the low Friday morning will be around 9AM and it will be near close to records. With the wind howling, wind chill readings will be in the 20s and 30s. |
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| Futurecast shows highs only in the lower 50s Friday!!!! This could put Little Rock into one of the coldest daytime highs for May in Little Rock weather history. |
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| There is some agreement in the models that some snow may occur in far northwest Arkansas. If this verifies, it would be the latest in state weather history. BTW, this is the NAM. |
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| The GFS is also showing close to the same thing with some snow possible for the far northwest. |
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| Futurecast shows .3'' possible in Fayetteville... Simply amazing if that happens. |
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