Sunday, July 14, 2013



The 2013 Summer Contest numbers are updated as of Sunday, July 14th.  Click on it in the navigation bar above for it.

Usually during the summertime we don't have much to talk about except big time heat.  Thankfully mother nature has added a little variety to what ends up being "weather re-runs".

The pattern lately has been quite interesting.  The hot, summer ridge builds in, then retrogrades to the west allowing cooler and drier air to build into the state.  This has repeated itself a few times and I think we'll have at least another round of that again.  This week will feature more blazing hot weather by Wednesday into next weekend.  I expect highs to approach 100 degrees with heat index temperatures around 100-105.  However, there are already signs this big ridge of high pressure will move to the west allowing yet another front to move into Arkansas during the beginning of the following week.

Before I get into that, take a look at some of these summer statistic tweeted out by the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock this past week

  • The average low for Jacksonville/Little Rock AFB for 7/1-12 was 65.3, tied 1972 for the coldest such period on record. 
  • At North Little Rock, the average low 7/1-12 was 68.8, the coolest since 1985.
  • At Camden, avg. low 7/1-12 was 65.5, the coolest since 1984.
  • So far for the month, Little Rock's average temp. is running 2.4 deg. below average. For the year, nearly one degree below average.  
  • For Jacksonville, the average low temperature 7/1-7/10 (64.9) has been the coolest since 1972
  • For 7/1-7/10, the average low temperature at Little Rock (67.9) has been the coolest since 1976.
  • By this time last year, there had been 11 100-degree days at Little Rock. This year so far, just two
This is the European model valid this upcoming Thursday in the upper levels.  That's a huge ridge of high pressure engulfing much of the country.  See how those black lines are much closer to each other over Canada?  That's where the jet stream has retreated to.  This is a very typical summertime pattern.  Hot and humid with just a very slight chance for an afternoon thunderstorm produced by intense surface heating.
However, look at the European model valid for the beginning of the following week.   The huge area of high pressure moves into the western United States and a trough develops over the east.  This will drive yet ANOTHER front!!  The burst of heat coming this week will likely be doomed again after a few short days!

NOAA indicates a good chance for below average to average temperatures in their 8-14 day outlook
There's also a good chance rainfall will be above average in the 8-14 day time period as well.

1 comment:

jimmylee42 said...

Todd-Looking at the NWS stats, if Little Rock only receives .12 inch of rain or less for the rest of this month, it will be the 2nd dryest July since records have been kept.