Sunday, July 07, 2013

It's Going To Get Worse Before It Gets Better


I think we are becoming a little spoiled this summer.  I plead guilty to that!  So far, we have only had one, 100 degree day and I think it's in the cards to have another one this week.  By this time last summer, we already had eleven, 100 degree days.  The average high temperature so far this month has been at least 10-13 degrees below that of last year.

The heat coming this week is due to an upper level high expanding westward into Arkansas as the cool trough of low pressure exits.  But just like the last burst of heat, this may not last too long as yet another trough develops.  Will it be as strong as the last one?  It's tough to say right now.  What about needed rainfall?  That too is tough to pinpoint at this time, but I do think there will be an enhanced chance for rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday, especially across eastern Arkansas.

The European model valid at 1PM Tuesday shows the western high in the upper levels expanding westward into Arkansas.  This will bring hot and humid conditions to the state with just a very small chance for an isolated afternoon shower or storm.  Look at the disturbance over North Dakota.  This piece of energy will help carve a trough of low pressure over the central and eastern United States again.  Before this happens, temperatures will soar into the 90s and maybe even 100 degrees.  I think the best chance for hitting 100 will be Wednesday in central Arkansas.
By late next Friday, the upper air pattern amplifies again.  The ridge stays in place across the west, but look at the trough carved out in the east!  This will produce a northerly flow aloft and help drive a frontal boundary into the state late Wednesday into Thursday.  Will it stall or move all the way through?  Tough to say right now.
Look at the drought monitor this July compared to last July.  It's a huge difference, but we still need some rainfall. So far, we have had almost 9'' more this year compared to last year at this time.
The long range models continue to show that new trough across the central and east.  Due to this feature, NOAA has a good chance it will be cooler and wetter than average in the 6-10 day time period.  HUGE difference compared to the triple digit heat this time last year.
The news continues to look good in the 8-14 day time period with a good chance for cooler and wetter than average conditions.

1 comment:

Tam said...

My husband works in the elements so he and I are loving this cooler summer weather and hope it stays that way. He isn't nearly as wiped out at the end of the day with temperatures a bit lower. I hope the models hold up and we are cooler and wetter than average in the next 10 days.

NOAA Winter Guidance