Monday, July 01, 2013

Near Record Cool To Needed Rainfall

AND ON TWITTER: @KATV_WEATHER


7:15AM Thursday Update.... First of all, happy Independence Day!  Hope you have a great and safe one with your friends and family.  The weather has been nothing short of amazing.  As promised, the opening to July will likely go down as the coolest in many years and no one is complaining.  Andria and I were going to take the boys swimming at our neighborhood pool in the morning earlier this week, but we decided it was too cool for them.  Who would have thought it would be too cool to swim in early July in Arkansas?  Anyway, we went in the afternoon and it was a blast.  However, whenever Blake got out of the water, he was shivering.  The dry air and breeze was a great lesson in evaporative cooling.  Try explaining that to a 3 year old.  He kept saying he wanted to get back into the water because it was warmer. 

Well, sometimes you hit long range forecasts and sometimes you don't.  We nailed the cooler air before anyone else was even thinking about it.  I thought the chance for rain would increase this weekend, but it's looking more and more like the rainfall will stay east of the state.  The combination of the surface high off the east coast pumping in TONS of Gulf moisture and the area of low pressure aloft has produced record amounts of rain across the southeastern United States.  I thought this area would eventually shift far enough west to bring some rain here, but it's not looking good.  I do think rain chances may increase a little next week, but this weekend is not going to be rainy.  There could be a few isolated afternoon showers and storms however so keep that in the back of your mind if you're doing anything outdoors.  

Take a look at this map of rainfall over the past 7 days according to radar estimates.

Rainfall totals according to doppler radar are as high as 8'' or more from Florida up the east coast over the past 7 days.  It appears the axis of moisture will stay east of the state.  We NEED some rainfall, but we'll have to wait a little longer.

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Noon Tuesday Update...  This weather is absolutely incredible.  I mowed the lawn and barely broke a sweat.   It's noon on Tuesday and the temperature in west Little Rock hit 80 for the first time today.  During a typical summer day, we could already be in the mid and upper 90s at this time.

I have no changes to what we first told you several days ago.  Next weekend, rain chances will be on the increase.  Not to the point where it's a wash out, but scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible, especially during the heating of the day.  We'll have a few days where that pattern will exist and it's possible this could make it the wettest July since 2009

As we indicated Monday, record lows would be possible last night and the National Weather Service has compiled a list.  Here it is.

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1015 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...SEVERAL RECORD LOWS TIED OR BROKEN FOR JULY 2ND...

                                  7/2   PREVIOUS RECORD   TEMPERATURE
LOCATION                          LOW     LOW FOR 7/2    RECORDS SINCE
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CALICO ROCK 2WSW                   53      57 IN 1950         1915
MOUNTAIN VIEW                      56      57 IN 2010         1962
MURFREESBORO 1W                    57      57 IN 1976         1970
SPARKMAN                           57      62 IN 2008         1963
CABOT 4SW                          58      60 IN 2008         1965
LEOLA                              58      61 IN 1995         1963
JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB       59      62 IN 1985         1956
CLARKSVILLE 6NE                    60      61 IN 2006         1986
FORDYCE                            60      62 IN 2008         1911
ROHWER 2NNE                        61      62 IN 2008         1959
HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT                62      63 IN 1995         1948
STUTTGART AIRPORT                  62      64 IN 1995         1942
 
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Almost a week ago I posted the idea we could have the coolest opening to July in years. The official high temperature Monday was 87 which makes it the coolest July 1st since  2007 when the high temperature was 85 with a little rainfall that day.

The remainder of this post will be brief and I'll have more soon.  I expect a piece of the current trough over the central United States to park itself somewhere over the Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma late in the week.  This will combine with Gulf of Mexico moisture to bring enhanced rain chances this upcoming weekend and the beginning of next week.  This will be the type of situation where scattered to numerous showers and storms can be expected during the afternoon with much of it fading away at night.  It's possible this feature will make this the wettest July in Little Rock since 2009.  Also, while moisture will be on the increase, our daytime highs should NOT approach 100 degrees with the proximity of the low and the added rain and clouds.  Again, I'll have more information on this later OR you can watch the video in the previous blog post for more details.

Record low temperatures will be challenged in several locations over the next couple nights.  Here's a list compiled by the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock.

LOCATION               JULY 2ND        JULY 3RD       JULY 4TH
BATESVILLE AIRPORT    57 IN 1948      56 IN 1945     55 IN 1947
BOONEVILLE            55 IN 1943      57 IN 1947     54 IN 1968
CAMDEN                55 IN 1950      56 IN 1924     53 IN 1924
CLARKSVILLE           58 IN 1985      57 IN 1959     55 IN 1968
CONWAY                54 IN 1924      55 IN 1959     52 IN 1924
FLIPPIN               55 IN 1985      51 IN 1959     50 IN 1968
GILBERT               52 IN 1943      55 IN 1968     49 IN 1940
HARDY                 57 IN 1918      60 IN 1918     53 IN 1922
HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT   56 IN 1997      53 IN 1969     56 IN 1967
JACKSONVILLE/LRAFB    62 IN 1985      62 IN 1959     59 IN 1968
LITTLE ROCK           58 IN 1924      59 IN 1924     56 IN 1968
MONTICELLO            52 IN 1887      58 IN 1985     54 IN 1961
NORTH LITTLE ROCK     64 IN 1995      68 IN 2004     64 IN 1995
PINE BLUFF            56 IN 1924      59 IN 1918     58 IN 1959
RUSSELLVILLE          58 IN 1948      57 IN 1967     55 IN 1968
STUTTGART AIRPORT     64 IN 1995      64 IN 1945     65 IN 1945



1 comment:

bobbie said...

Cool evenings and nights....keep it coming....

NOAA Winter Guidance