1:30 PM Friday Update... Yes, some of the models continues to indicate a change over to wet snow Sunday afternoon and evening, especially across northern Arkansas. Like I have been saying, this is a completely different set up compared to most this winter. I still think the majority of the precip will fall in the form of rain. This forecast can and still will change.
I have had to say the "S" word and it isn't "spring". You have to remember, this time of the year can bring some of the wildest weather. Remember last March? Heavy snow fell across northern Arkansas during spring break. Up to 9'' piled up in Fulton county if my memory is correct. So this is nothing unusual, but I think there's many of you tired of it this winter.
I want to make it crystal clear, the bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain and it could be heavy at times, especially late Saturday. We should get a break early Sunday, then moisture and cold air will pour back in Sunday afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be set early in the day. This set up is very different from what we have seen over the past 3 months, but very typical for late winter and early spring. During this past winter, low level arctic air has undercut a warm and moist flow aloft and this has resulted in lots of ice and sleet. IF there's any frozen precipitation late Sunday, it would likely fall in the form of snow due to the development of a strong area of low pressure aloft. So while temperatures at the surface could be just above freezing, aloft it will be cold. This is very different than past set ups this winter. Instead of the cold building from the surface up, the cold will build from the top, down. I hope that makes sense.
With all that said, there are major differences between the North American Model (NAM) and the Global Forecasting System (GFS). Both indicate significant rainfall, but differ in the strength and amount of moisture associated with the upper low late Sunday. If you love snow, you're rooting for the NAM, and if you don't, you're rooting for the GFS. However, the GFS even indicates a change over late Sunday over the far north.
Check out the maps below courtesy of weatherbell.com
|This is the GFS at the same time. The surface low is further south, but the upper low is not as strong as the NAM. There is a change over to snow, but it's over far northern Arkansas,|