We are now in our primary severe weather season (March through May). Although sometimes our worst severe weather can come in the fall. That's another story for another day. The first week of March was "Severe Weather Awareness Week". While we should have focused more on it, we had snow and ice in the state so it was kinda tough. So what should we expect this year?
I plan on doing a more extensive blog post on this subject matter within the next couple of weeks, but my preliminary thoughts I had in the winter have not changed. The sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico are colder than average. This can inhibit strong moisture return needed for violent thunderstorms since the warm, humid air from the Gulf is what fuels our stormy weather. While no two seasons are exactly the same, this could be comparable to last year. You may remember we had a very quiet early Spring with little severe weather due to the continuous cold air intrusions. We had the Botkinburg tornado in April. It wasn't until May 30th when we had an "outbreak". By that time, the Gulf was warm and supplied us with copious amounts of moisture.
By no means should you ever let your guard down anytime of the year, but those are my thoughts and I'll have more later.
Here's a story from Accuweather.com which backs my position I have had since earlier this winter. CLICK HERE
|FROM WEATHERBELL.COM. HERE ARE THE CURRENT SST'S ANOMALIES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOTICE A LOT OF THE WATER IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS COLDER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.|