Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Here We Go Again, Storms Then Chilly


Quiet is good in April, but that will come to a screeching stop late this weekend into next week.  Have you seen the various news reports about the slow tornado season?  This is the latest we have gone (nationally) without a tornado death since reliable tornado records were kept.  That dates back to about 1950.  Let's keep that streak going!

A potent storm system will bring locally heavy rain and storms Sunday into Monday.  I do expect severe weather, but specifics are yet to be ironed out.  Wind and hail seems to be a good bet, but what about tornadoes?  You can't rule that out at all this time of year so this is something to watch.  Behind this storm system, an unseasonably cold air mass will settle into the region with near record breaking lows.  I know I sent out a tweet and post on facebook declaring the winter of 2013-2014 dead.  But what do you consider "winter"?  I do think the chance for a frost/freeze will remain low, but there will be a chill in the air.  While it's about 1 week away, the data indicates we could challenge record lows which stand more than 100 years!  We'll see as we get closer, but it does appear the air conditioning will not be going full force anytime soon and that's good news for our wallet, right?

This is the projected Sunday morning surface map.  This is a classic set up for severe weather, especially out in the Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas plains.  Severe weather will become likely out there first, then the chance will increase here as the system pulls out into the mid south.
By Monday morning, the front is along the OK/AR border.  The timing of all this can still change since it's still about 1 week away.  Given the location of the front here, severe weather may occur Monday as well into state.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of the western half of the state Sunday into Monday for an enhanced threat for severe weather.
Heavy rain will also be an issue.  Amounts could easily exceed 2'' in the Sunday/Monday time period.
Weatherbell.com maps of the GFS show low temperatures next Wednesday morning in the 30s north and 40s central and south.  This will get  close to record territory.

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NOAA Winter Guidance