Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Best 4th of July In Almost 50 Years?

If this is what we can expect the remainder of the summer, you will hear no complaints from me.  I grew up in this state and I know how horribly hot and humid it can get.  We all know it can get to the point that even stepping outside is not an option.  The summer of 1980 is seared in my head forever and we all know how bad 2010, 2011, and 2012 were.

I have completed some preliminary research and have found something amazing.  This 4th of July COULD be the nicest since 1968.  I'll explain.  You may recall last year was pretty nice on the 4th.  We had a comfortable high of 89 and the humidity wasn't bad at all.  However, this year, the models have a high temperature which could be a couple of degrees cooler with even less humidity.

Looking back at 2006, 2007, and 2008, we had highs in the mid and upper 80s.  Sounds nice?  Well it was, BUT we had rain each one of those years and therefore probably some humidity around too.

Going back to 1997, the high was 89 degrees with no rain and in 1996 the high was 89 with a trace of rainfall.

1989 had a high of 86 degrees, but dewpoint values were in the upper 60s to near 70 all day long and it will be much drier this year.

1976 had a high of 76 degrees, but .2'' of rain fell.  1972 had a high of 81 degrees with a trace of rain.  Then we go back to 1968 and find a high of 81 degrees with a record breaking low temperature of 56 degrees and humidity values were LOW that day with a surface high positioned northeast of the state funneling in nice, Canadian air.

So there you have it.  The last time we had a high temperature below 89 degrees with no rain and low humidity was 1968.  Sure, we have had some nice fourth of July's since then, but this one might be the best since 1968.  We'll see if Mother Nature can deliver.  Thanks to the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock for helping with these dates.

Getting to that nice air could be a little rough late today into early Wednesday morning as the front moves through the state.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of northern Arkansas in a slight risk for severe weather.  The main threats will be wind and hail.  We can never, ever rule out a tornado, but the threat is very much on the low end.  The Euro maps below are courtesy of weatherbell.com

The hi res simulated radar is from the NAM and remember, it will not be perfect, but will give you a good general idea.

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