Thursday, July 31, 2014

July Goes Out Like A Lion



Remember earlier in the week the GFS (Global Forecast System) said the high temperature today would be 87 degrees today (Thursday).  You go out there today and tell me how wrong that model was!  It still amazes me people still use that as their only model to make a forecast.  Looking down the road, the GFS also has highs back in the 90s in the long range and I have doubts about that.

We're on record watch as the rain comes down today.  The focus for the heaviest rain will be across western and southwestern Arkansas.  Amounts in central Arkansas will be lighter and therefore, it will be tough to break into the top 10 wettest July's in history, but it will be close.  As I write this post at 7:30 Thursday morning, we're only .27'' of rain from getting into that top 10 list.  As I have mentioned before, 7 out of the top 10 wettest years NEVER hit 100 degrees.

The high temperature will need to be watched as well.  The coolest daytime high for July 31st  is 74 degrees set in 1902.  That record, which has stood for more than 100 years, could fall.

As far as the coolest daily high in Little Rock weather history, we must stay 73 degrees or cooler through midnight.  That will be tough to do.  Remember, we tied for the coolest July day just a couple weeks ago so doing it again in the same year will be extremely difficult.  We'll see if Mother Nature can pull a repeat.

Below are some preliminary projections as final numbers will not be known until Friday.  The 3rd wettest July in history will be a big stretch, but as long as we're here, let's go BIG.

One more interesting item, the average monthly temperature COULD end up the coolest since 1902.  Again, that's amazing.  Here are some other records already released by the National Weather Service in North Little Rock.

"July was the coldest on record at Malvern, with an avg. temp of 75.6. Prev. record was 75.7 in 1995,1967. Records since 1882"

" July was the coldest on record at Morrilton, with an avg. temp of 76.4. Prev. record was 77.8 in 2009. Records since 1919"

"July was the coldest on record at Batesville L&D, with an avg. temp of 75.0. Prev. record was 76.4 in 2009."

" July was the coldest on record at Sparkman, with an avg. temp of 74.1. Prev. record was 76.9 in 2007. Temp records since 1963."

" July was the coldest on record at Searcy, with an avg. temp of 76.9. Prev. record was 77.3 in 1967, 1923. Records since 1882."



NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook continues to point towards below average temperatures from Aug 5-9

The 8-14 day outlook continued with a high chance for below average temperatures.  This is through August 13th.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Todd, you seem to have a high degree of confidence that this winter will be cold. I thought you were leery on any forecasts more than 7 days out though? Interesting that you and Joe are very confident on this; the factors for a brutal winter must be very apparent. Looking forward to this winter.

NOAA Winter Guidance