Sunday, July 27, 2014

July Going Out Like A Lion



Yes, I just made March mad.  Our 2 day mini heat wave will come to an end late Sunday as yet another very strong cold front moves through the state.  I really hesitate to even call it a heat wave since high temperatures are actually almost exactly average for late July.  I'm writing this early Sunday morning and I have noticed the data says it will be 98 to 99 degrees today in Little Rock.  I'm willing to bet this is too high since the soil still has plenty of water in it and it's tough to get those readings up that high.  Yesterday (Saturday) was a classic example of that.  The models forecast a high temperature around 96 to 97 degrees and the high was 93.  There's so much moisture in the ground and in the air, this really prevents the actual temperature from realizing what the computers say.  However, the heat index was horrible.   It reached 105 in many locations and will do so again Sunday.

That cold front will spark a few showers and storms late today and some could be strong to severe.  I'm not expecting an outbreak, but we'll watch radar today!  It's tough to undergo a transition like this without Mother Nature lighting a few fireworks.  The main threats will be wind and hail.  The tornado threat is extremely low.


We all know by now temperatures will go well below average starting Monday with low humidity too.  Daily record low temperatures will have to be watched, but I want to key in on late Wednesday and Thursday.  These last 2 days of July have the potential to bust more temperature and precipitation records.  Just like that cool and rainy day a couple weeks ago, this COULD be similar.  If one looks at the GFS MOS data this Sunday morning, you will see a high on Thursday of 87 degrees.  I don't buy that at all!!!! I think that could be at least 10-15 degrees too high.  With the cold front south of the state and a northwesterly flow delivering a strong disturbance, clouds and rain will hold down temperatures.  I think it's even possible to have yet another day when the daily high temperature breaks into the top 10 coolest July days.  We're also going to watch monthly temperature records as this will likely end up as one of the coolest July's in history.

I highly doubt we break a daily rainfall record Thursday.  That's 5.69 inches set in 1902.  I hope we don't break that because that would likely cause some serious flooding.  However, it will only take less than half an inch to break into the top 10 wettest July's on record.  As I have mentioned before, 7 out of the top 10 wettest July's had summers when the temperature NEVER hit 100 degrees.  That's why I say there's a 70% chance we will not hit 100 degrees officially in Little Rock this summer.  I know there's plenty of August to go, but troughing will likely hold across the central U.S. for the next week to 10 days.  Of course, all this could be ruined if the models are right for today and we approach 100. LOL.

Like I said, I really want to focus in on the last day of this month (Thursday).  Both the GFS and the Euro are pointing towards a wet and cool day.  That's the reason for the title of this post, "July Going Out Like A Lion.".  Once again, my apologies to the month of March for stealing your line.

The following maps displaying model data are from weatherbell.com

Euro total rain amounts late Wednesday into Thursday show more than 1 inch across most of Arkansas except the far east and northeast.  The track of the disturbance favors western and southwestern Arkansas for the heaviest rainfall.  REMEMBER, THIS CAN CHANGE SINCE IT'S SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
The European max temperatures from 1PM to 7PM Thursday just off the surface indicates highs only in the 60s and 70s!!!!!!  Remember, the GFS says 87 on its MOS data.  OUT TO LUNCH!
The GFS total rainfall looks kinda similar to the Euro with western Arkansas the target for the heaviest rainfall late Wednesday and Thursday.
The GFS max temperature from 1PM to 7PM Thursday even shows highs only in the 60s and 70s.  This is why I don't trust the MOS data.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Wondering what kind of impact the mild summer will have on winter. Any ideas?

NOAA Winter Guidance