Thursday, September 25, 2014

Active Weather On The Horizon

Let me first begin by saying this next weather event is a week away and there will be changes as to how this plays out.  However, I want to raise awareness since there appears to be at least some risk for some strong thunderstorm activity.  The Storm Prediction Center even mentioned the risk in their 4-8 day outlook discussion this Thursday morning.  Remember, we're going into our secondary severe weather season as we head into October.  I really want to make it clear, it's very early so please keep checking back and I'll let you know how this should play out as we get closer.  I hope it just turns into an area of rain and moves across the state.

The following maps are from

This is the GFS next Thursday at 1PM.  You can clearly see the front off to the west and there will be waves of low pressure riding along that boundary as it pushes east.  Increasing warmth and moisture will produce elevated instability values.
Look at the warm air ahead of the front at that time.  Temperatures will be in the 80s and dewpoint values could be in the 60s and even 70s!
By late Thursday, you can see the GFS is picking up on areas where rain and thunderstorms may occur.

In summary, stay tuned.  I hope it doesn't result in severe weather, but when you see a set up like this, you gotta keep and eye on it.   It's still wayyyyyyy too early to get specific.

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