Sunday, September 28, 2014

Much Cooler Air Not Too Far Away

It kinda feels like this September has been warm, but the average monthly temperature is right at average.  However, with a couple more days to go and temperatures well into the 80s, we'll likely end September slightly above average.  This will be the first time that has happened in a year.  We are on a streak of 2 weeks with 80 degree plus temperatures and that will all come to an end later this week.

The time period to watch is late Thursday.  A quick moving cold front will bring rain and thunderstorms.  Strong and even severe thunderstorms will be possible.  As of Sunday, I have slight chance for early morning showers in the forecast Friday, but I think it's very possible all of Friday will be dry.  It's too early to make a call on that.  Friday will feature northerly winds and much cooler air and that will take us into Race For the Cure!  There are signs however, this cool down will not last long.   It's in and out.  Readings may pop above average by the beginning of the following week.  Here's the newest data so far from

Remember, this is still several days out and specifics can still change.

I'm going to use the European model for this blog post.  This shows you total precipitation amounts between 1PM and 7PM Thursday.  The timing of all this is still in question.

The Euro total rainfall amounts shows some areas receiving heavy thunderstorm rains and other locations not.  Some could see as little as .1'' and some as high as 1-2''.  Where this all sets up is still impossible to pinpoint this far out.  This is just one model run of many.

1PM Thursday temperatures really shows you the effects of rain and cooler air.  Readings in the low to mid 70s north to upper 80s southeast.

7AM temperatures Saturday should be in the 40s and 50s across the state.

Look for highs only in the 70s Saturday according to the Sunday AM run of the Euro.


Anonymous said...

Nothing we haven't seen, when are we gonna get a REAL cold front? Bring us fall, Todd!

Anonymous said...

I'm not liking how this pattern has been lately. It seems to be very similar to what Todd dubbed "an island of cool in a sea of warmth" in the winter of 2010-11. Hopefully this changes soon.

NOAA Winter Guidance