Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Cool Ghouls, First Frost, and Election Day Wet Weather

Put a fork in the 80 degree + weather for awhile.  It's done!  There may be frost on the pumpkin this weekend as the coldest air mass so far this season descends upon the state.  We're going to go from using the A/C to using the heater this weekend.  We'll also go from having a heat index to a wind chill as well.  The temperature difference between highs last weekend and next weekend could be as great as 30 degrees.  The first frost of the season may be likely for many and there could even be freezing temperatures across the far north Saturday and Sunday morning.  Don't forget to fall back one hour Saturday night/Sunday morning as daylight saving time comes to an end.

Now onto Election Day.  It's still a week away from the time I'm writing this post and there are obvious model differences which is to be expected.  The Euro moves through front and rain through here during the first half of next Tuesday while the GFS stalls the front and precip across the northwestern half of the state most of next Tuesday.  At this point, it's too early to predict the speed of the front and the exact timing of all this.  However, both of the models do show a descent potential for rainfall.

The maps from the European model are courtesy of weatherbell.com

These are forecast temperatures on Friday at 7PM according to the European model.  It shows 40s north and 50s central/south.  There may even be a wind chill temperature for some!  It should also be dry.
Look at the forecast lows from the European Saturday morning.  It could be at or below freezing across the north and in the mid 30s central and south.  If the winds diminish enough, a frost will be likely.
By Sunday morning, the cold air mass is slowly easing to the east, but it's still cold with widespread 30s across the state.
This is the forecast surface map next Tuesday (Election Day).  The front is off to the northwest at 6AM with a good chance for rain along and ahead of it.  Look at the cold area of high pressure along the east coast.  The back side of this is feeding moisture into the state from the Gulf.
This is the European valid at noon next Tuesday.  It has the front moving through the state faster than the GFS.  The blobs indicate rainfall amounts between 6AM and noon Tuesday.  You can see how the heavist amounts are located across SE portions of the state according to this model.   As I said above, it's way too early to get specific and this will change. 
The GFS from 6AM to noon Election Day shows the heaviest rainfall across the west and the north so you see the differences in the models, but both indicate the potential for rain.  The forecast will become clearer by the weekend and I'll keep you updated.

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