Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Hot-Tober to Novem-BRRRRR

As of Tuesday, October 28th, we are almost 3 degrees above average for the month of October.  This is only the 2nd month over the past year with above average temperatures.  I can't tell you how November will end, but I can tell you it's going to start off very chilly.  It's really amazing how fast things can change around here.  Last weekend I was talking about a heat index and we may have a wind chill reading this weekend. Our average first frost for many locations around the state usually occurs around the end of October or the beginning of November so we're right on schedule.

The other big weather story we need to follow over the next few days are the rain chances Tuesday (Election Day).  The models all show a front coming through the state, but the differ on timing and intensity.  The newest version of the GFS moves it through here Tuesday and is faster than previous runs.  With that said, it still shows significant amounts of rain on Election Day.

Don't forget to fall back one hour this Saturday night as daylight saving time ends.  It's also a good idea to change the battery in your smoke detector.  With the cold air coming, make sure your heater is working properly and you have a carbon monoxide detector.

Onto the maps...

The GFS seems a little too cold lately, but I guess it's within the realm of possibilities.  Look at these 7PM temperatures Halloween!  30s north to mid 40s central and upper 40s south.  It will be dry.
Once again, I wonder if the GFS is just a little too cold, but it shows widespread 20s west and northwest Saturday morning with lower 30s elsewhere.  NOVEM-BRRRRRRR

7AM wind chill readings according to the GFS should be in the mid and upper 20s Saturday morning! WOW!
The GFS shows more than half an inch of rain between midnight and 6AM Tuesday as a front moves into the state.  This model run is faster than some of the previous runs.

Between 6AM and noon Election Day, the rain amounts will be confined to the SE half of the state according to this one model run.  It's too early to pinpoint exact timing.
Between noon and 6PM Tuesday, the rain moves away, but there's still some across the southeast.

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