Friday, April 17, 2015

Severe Weather Threat Late Sunday


Did I talk too soon?  A few days ago, it looked like the chance for any organized, widespread severe weather was shut down for awhile.  While I don't expect this to be widespread, we will have a few hours late Sunday afternoon and early evening we need to watch for strong to severe thunderstorms.  This looks more "linear".  With a line of storms, the tornado threat is there, but it's low.  The main threat will be wind and hail with the line.

This is the transition to a much cooler weather pattern.  At this time, I have highs Monday and Tuesday at 70 degrees with lows in the 40s and 50s.  It would not surprise me to have highs only in the 60s.  NOAA released their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook and it has temperatures below average and precipitation above average.

The model maps below are from WeatherBell Analytics.

The timing of this will not be perfect, but this is what we're expecting at this point.  Remember, as this evolves, things can change.  Look for a line of storms to develop late Sunday afternoon and evening.  This is simulated radar at 7PM Sunday.
This is CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) Sunday at 7PM.  This is the instability, the fuel for thunderstorms.  The levels are above 3000 for some locations which is plenty for strong to severe weather.
By 10PM, the line is past the metro and moving into south central and east central Arkansas.
By 1AM Monday, the line is across southeast Arkansas and getting ready to cross the Mississippi River.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of Arkansas in an area with the greatest threat for severe weather.  This is all late Sunday with the line we're expecting to develop.
We'll have a medium threat for wind and hail, which is typical with a line of storms.  The tornado threat is there, but is low.  This is still subject to change.
The NOAA 6-10 day outlook indicates a good chance for below average temperatures.
It doesn't change in the 8-14 day outlook.  The average high is well into the 70s, but should be below average for awhile.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Help, I am drowning in tree pollen. Thankful that the rains come and knock some of it down. Be glad when it is over.

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