Monday, April 13, 2015

Widespread Severe Weather Shut Down For Awhile

And that's a very, very good thing!  You can NEVER rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm this time of year, but widespread severe weather does not look likely over the next couple weeks for our portion of the country.  That takes us into the end of April.  Once we get towards mid to late May, our primary severe weather season begins to fade away.  I do not think we'll escape this spring, but I hope we keep the activity to a minimum.

The bigger weather story this week will be the periods of rainfall we're expecting, then the big weather story will turn to well below average temperatures.

We'll have rain increase today (Monday), then the showers will become more scattered Tuesday and Wednesday.  The chance for rain may increase again by the end of the week as a new storm system approaches.  The exact timing and location will be difficult to pin down this far in advance, but it does look unsettled.  Again, the chance for severe weather is there, but it looks very low for awhile.

As we go into next week, the pattern really begins to amplify.  That means the jet stream will have substantial troughs and ridges.  One of those ridges will go up over western Canada with a downstream trough.  You know what that means?  That ridge will deliver a surge of cold air to the south and temperatures may go well below average next week.

5 day rainfall totals will be significant.  Since this is spread out over the entire week, flooding concerns are not too high at this time.  However, you see how active the weather will become.
By next Tuesday, April 21st, you can see the ridge poking up into western Canada and a strong trough developing over the central United States.  This will put a big dent in any widespread severe weather chances and keep it cooler than average.
NOAA's 8-14 day outlook indicates a good chance for below average temperatures.  Notice where the above average temperatures will be located... underneath that ridge!

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NOAA Winter Guidance