Saturday, March 12, 2016

Sunday Severe Update

The system we have been discussing on the Arkansas Weather Blog for more than a week will swing through the state Sunday afternoon and evening.  There's plenty of cold air aloft and that will be favorable for hail production.  In these situations, an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out, but the threat is low.  It's a fast moving system and I expect it to be east of the Mississippi River by midnight tomorrow.

Not everyone will have a thunderstorm Sunday because they will be widely scattered, but if you get under the core of one of these storms, you run the risk for large hail.  Below are the threats and specific timing.

BTW, I'll have final numbers for the winter weather contest very soon.

Also, we're going to dry out next week and enjoy warm weather, but I see colder air returning by the end of next week.  Remember, it's still technically winter.  I'll blog about that later.

MOST OF THE FOLLOWING MAPS ARE FROM WEATHERBELL.COM.

THIS IS SIMULATED RADAR FROM THE 4KM NAM.  IT WILL !NOT! BE PERFECT, BUT GIVES YOU A GOOD GENERAL IDEA.

4PM SUNDAY

5PM SUNDAY

6PM SUNDAY

7PM SUNDAY

11PM SUNDAY

1AM MONDAY
SEVERE RISK SUNDAY FROM SPC
SPECIFIC THREAT LEVELS


1 comment:

Oliver Queen said...

Hey Todd. I live in Star City and I enjoy reading your weather blogs. One thing that has bothered me as of late though is that you've been giving more attention to this "bowling ball" storm system that's coming through than the near historic rains that we've received down here in southeast Arkansas. I mean it's only got a 15% chance of severe weather and is under a slight risk from the SPC. And I quote from the SPC: "MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD APPROACH 2+ INCHES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SIG HAIL IS LOW AT THIS TIME IN THE ABSENCE OF GREATER INSTABILITY." This storm is just another storm that Arkansas is used to with large hail, some damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. While we do feel slighted in southeastern Arkansas it also makes me worry about future storms. Remember on average floods kill more people per year than tornadoes, lightning, and hail combined. Also, this may create a situation of crying wolf should a minimal amount of severe weather materialize and then when a storm capable of a major severe weather outbreak forms in the future people will remember this one and the whole crying wolf will come into play. Just something to think about for all of Arkansans safety in the future.

NOAA Winter Guidance