Friday, July 15, 2016

Possible Dent In That 100 Degree Forecast

In the post below, I talked about one of the variables in making a forecast for the 1st 100 degree temperatures of the summer, recent rainfall.

The suns energy will go into evaporation before it can efficiently be used to heat the surface.  Once the soil moisture is basically gone, we can bake with actual air temperatures of 100 degrees or higher.

As I also mentioned, this should NOT be our focus when forecasting next week.  The "heat index" is the real story and that should exceed 100 degrees and possibly reach 110 degrees.  The heat advisory criteria is 105 degrees for at least 1 hour.  I have a strong feeling heat advisories will be issued.

This is a particularly dangerous time of the year, especially for young guys.  Football practice will be starting soon and heat exhaustion and heat stroke are real threats.  PLEASE AVOID THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND STAY VERY HYDRATED!

By the way, the storm complex Thursday produced a wind gust to 68 mph at the Little Rock airport which is the strongest in July weather history.  Also, that's the 5th strongest of all-time for that location.  Very amazing stuff.

48 hour rainfall ending Friday morning at 7:40.  Notice the heaviest of the rainfall has been over northern and western Arkansas with lesser amounts south and east.

Courtesy of Weatherbell.com.  21 day rainfall with the heaviest amounts over the north and west with lesser amounts east and southwest.

Courtesy of EuroWx.com.  Forecast highs from the Euro on Monday the 18th.  Notice highs in the mid and upper 90s across areas that have seen the least amount of rainfall as this new ridge of high pressure builds into the central United States.  I have a feeling these actual air temperatures might be overdone a bit.  We'll see.

Euro forecast highs Tuesday should the coolest across the north with plenty of heat across the south.

The same carries into Wednesday with near 100 degree temperatures across the southwest.  That's one of the areas which has received the least amount of rainfall.

Thursday highs from the Euro.

Friday highs show near 100 degrees east (where least amount of soil moisture exists) and far southwest.   Remember, these are just computer model forecasts.

Saturday the 23rd has highs near 100 across the southeast half of the state with cooler readings north.


IN SUMMARY... A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK.  IT'S NOT A GOOD IDEA TO FOCUS ON WHETHER OR NOT WE HIT 100 DEGREES BECAUSE THE HEAT INDEX WILL TOP 105-110.  HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

THE FIRST ACTUAL 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN, ESPECIALLY LATE NEXT WEEK IF WE DON'T RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL.  BY THAT TIME, THE GROUND COULD DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR THAT TO HAPPEN ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WHERE THE LEAST HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.  NEVERTHELESS, STAY SAFE AND HYDRATED!

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