Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Summer To Sizzle ArkanSauna Style

Climatologically, we are going into the hottest time of the year and we can see it clearly with many of the long range models.  The only question is, how hot?

To answer that, we need to know where the ridge of high pressure will set up, the potential for any short term rainfall, and who has recently received significant amounts of rainfall over the past few weeks.  With all that said, it is my belief at this time, the southeastern half of the state will begin to sizzle next week with high temperatures very close to 100 degrees, BUT that's NOT what our focus should be!!!!  The combination of heat and humidity will make the heat index soar into the 100-110 degree range and heat advisories may be needed.

Most of the following maps are from Eurowx.com and Weatherbell.com

Total 5 day rainfall amounts will be heaviest across northern Arkansas closer to a frontal boundary.  The best chance for storms will arrive Thursday into Friday and some could be strong and maybe even severe across the north.  During the summertime, rainfall is from convection (thunderstorms) which means some receive much more than others depending on where these storms develop and track.  Most of the activity will be centered across the north, but some could go a bit further south.
Total 14 day rainfall amounts gives us guidance into the future.   The ground has plenty of water in it across northwest Arkansas with lesser amounts across the southeast half.  The suns energy goes into evaporation rather than completely heating the surface.  Once the ground dries out, actual air temperatures soar!  However, the heat index will go above 100 degrees and that's what we really need to pay attention to.  This map is courtesy of weatherbell.com  
In the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure sets up over the central United States next week.  This will be a pressure cooker for many with highs near 100 and heat index values around 100-110 degrees.

ALL OF THE FOLLOWING MAPS ARE FROM EUROWX.COM.
Monday high temperatures according to the Euro.  Notice the heat really builds (mid 90s) across the southeastern half of the state.

The heat expands a bit on Wednesday the 20th with highs near 100 across much of Arkansas except the NW.

By Thursday, the 21st, the heat continues in the same areas.  Northwest Arkansas is cooler due to the rainfall over the past few weeks AND the higher elevations.

By Friday, the heat continues with highs near 100 for much of the state
This is valid on Monday the 18th.  Ignore the time stamp in the upper left.  That's UTC or Zulu time.  Any area in purple is the heat index above 100 degrees.  The next shade of purple is 105.  Once again, notice the core of the high heat will be over much of Arkansas except the higher elevations of northwest and west central AR.

Tuesday, heat index values soar to 100 with 105 or greater northeast.

Wednesday the 20th, it's the same song and dance.
 

By Thursday, it's getting very old.
And by Friday, it's more of the same.
IN SUMMARY, IT'S GOING TO GET HOT AND HUMID AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.  THIS IS VERY TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WE ENTER THE CLIMOTOLOGICALLY HOTTEST PERIOD.  IN OTHER WORDS, WE HAVE SEEN WORSE!  AS FAR AS THE FOLLOWING WEEK AND ENDING JULY, THE HEAT RULES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE AVERAGE.  SO WHAT'S AVERAGE?  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.  

TIME TO DRINK WATER, FIND SOME SHADE, AND TAKE A DIP IN THE POOL.  STAY SAFE!!!!!!

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