Friday, February 24, 2017

Does A Warm February = A Hot Summer?

This is the 2nd most asked question I have received this month.  In case you're wondering, the #1 question is, "will it snow again this winter?"  For this post, I'm only going to focus on the summer and how a warm February relates to that.  The snow thing does not look good though.

We are going to end this month in record territory all over the state in several categories.

As of the 24th, this February is the 2nd warmest by average high temperature, the 7th warmest by average low temperature, and the 3rd warmest by average monthly temperature.  Also, we have had 9 days with a high temperature of 70° or higher.  The record is 11 days set in 1976 and that's reachable.

For this research, I simply looked at the top 10 warmest Februarys by average high, average low, and average monthly temperature.  Then, I looked at where the following summer ranked in each of those categories. It should also be noted, I only grabbed the top 20 summers in each of those categories for comparison.  Where you see N/A, that means it did NOT fall within the top 20.  Here are the results.


By average monthly high temperature, Only 3 out of the top 10 February's ranked in the top 20 hottest summers.

By average monthly low temperature, only 2 out of the top 10 February's ranked in the top 20 summers.  None in the top 10 though.

By average monthly temperature, only 3 out of the top 10 February's ranked in the top 20 summers.

In summary, it is unlikely you can correlate a warm February to a hot summer.  Every summer is hot in Arkansas.  It's just a question of "how hot"?

No comments:

NOAA Winter Guidance