Monday, January 15, 2018

1st Widespread Snow Of The Winter

You have seen our forecasts throughout the past couple days evolve and I have a few thoughts and updates I want to share with you.

  • No matter how much snow you get, roads will be slick.  Whether it's 1'' or 3'', that does not matter.  In this situation, it only takes small amounts to cause issues.

  • Power outages should not be a factor.

  • I think it's very reasonable to increase the snowfall amounts for much of southern Arkansas and I think it's possible for amounts to exceed 4 or 5 inches, but not much more than that for most places.  

  • Central Arkansas will be on the northern fringe of the snowfall so I expect a significant gradient in snow amounts across the metro.   Again, it does not matter how much you get.  It takes very little for slick roads to develop.

  • The snow will stay on the ground for a couple days.  This means if your school closes Tuesday, there's a good chance it will close Wednesday too.  I don't make those decisions. 

  • Wind chill values will drop to -20° at times across northern Arkansas.  This is dangerously cold weather!  Wind chill values may drop well below zero across portions of central Arkansas too.  Remember: PEOPLE, PETS, AND PIPES.  Plants are already done.


Courtesy Pivotal weather.  The HRRR ,using the Kuchera algorithm, has amounts close to 5'' just south of the metro near Pine Bluff.  This is a model and not a forecast.  There should be a swath from SW to east central of 2-5''.  Look at the gradient across the metro.  Tough forecast.  Yes, those are lighter amounts north, but remember, it won't take much for slick roads so travel will be messy there too.
Our forecast as of 4PM Monday.  There's the swath of 2-4'' or more from Texarkana to Pine Bluff over to east central AR.  Again, I would not be surprised to see isolated higher amounts.

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