Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Possible Winter Weather

I continue to think this develops and intensifies east of the state, BUT there could be a few effects across portions of northern and eastern Arkansas Friday.  At this time, I don't expect this to be a winter storm.   However, I would not be surprised if northeastern areas of the state had a few slick roads Friday morning.  As I stated in a Facebook Live last night (Tuesday), if this develops further west, winter weather will be more likely.  However, most signs point towards intensification east of the state.  I have seen these things change rapidly so stay with Channel 7 for the newest information.  The surface temperature may struggle to even get down to 32° Friday morning across much of central Arkansas.  If it does, it won't last long.  Readings should jump above freezing quickly.

If you are traveling east of Arkansas into MS and TN and north of the state towards the Ohio River valley, expect winter storm conditions.  

We will have a return to cold this weekend with highs mainly in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.  

The models differ on what will happen Monday or Tuesday.  The European is very consistent with a wave of low pressure bringing wintry weather to the state and the GFS has little to nothing.  Remember, the past is a guide to the future.  It hurts to say this, but the Euro hasn't been that great lately.  GFS hasn't been great either.  This is a very low confidence forecast for that reason and because it's in the long range.

The following images are the GFS from WeatherBell.com.

It's a cold rain late Thursday with a changeover across Oklahoma and FAR NW Arkansas.

From 6PM Thursday to midnight Friday.  There's a change to sleet and freezing rain across north central Arkansas.  It's still above freezing central.  There could be a changeover across the north to light snow before ending.

The change to sleet and snow continues into Friday at 6AM, but most of the precip will be east of the state at this time.  However, it will be possible for slick roads mainly eastern and northeastern Arkansas for a time Friday morning.  Then temperatures go above freezing.


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