Tuesday, February 27, 2018

More Rain, Some Severe, And Some Record Smashing

Remember my weather forecast the weekend before last?  I went on the air and told you it was the most active 7 day forecasts I have put together in many months.  Many ended up boosting their February rainfall amounts to near record levels in the matter of only a few days.  We also ended up with severe weather to end the week.  Even though most of the severe weather was just outside of the Channel 7 viewing area, it serves as a useful reminder severe weather season is here now!

I always talk about having a way to receive warnings, but we really need to take it a step further.  YOU NEED TO HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION!

We always tell you to go to the lowest level, put as many walls between you and the outside, and stay away from windows.  Tornadoes are completely survivable if you follow a plan of action!

With that said, we do have the threat for severe weather Wednesday, BUT at this time, it does not look like last Saturday.  I think heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the greatest concern.  If there is any severe weather, it will be mainly across southern Arkansas.

This will come in 2 waves.  The first arrives late today (Tuesday) and lasts for awhile tonight.  The next round comes in Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Then, we'll receive a much needed break.  Unlike last week, this will not be a multi-day event with one round of heavy rain after another.  This will be mainly 2 rounds within 24-36 hours.

For the Little Rock Marathon, scattered light showers will be possible Sunday morning.  More later.

Just a little more than 2'' of rainfall will vault February 2018 into the wettest February since records were kept in the 1870s
Meteorological winter ends tomorrow night.  We consider the months of December, January, and February the winter months.  This is already the 10th wettest on record and that's AMAZING.  We had several weeks this winter with burn bans and elevated wildfire dangers.  We could easily go into the top 5 with the expected rainfall late today into Wednesday
Models have mostly 2-3'' for the Little Rock area, but higher amounts will be found just south of the metro.
As much as 4-6 inches could fall in a corridor from near Arkadelphia to Pine Bluff over to Phillips county.  Northern Arkansas will see lesser amounts.
There will be 2 waves of rainfall.  The first arrives late Tuesday afternoon and evening.  We get a break, then the next arrives Wednesday afternoon.  The 2nd round could come with some severe weather.
The threat for any severe weather in the metro is quite low and for southern Arkansas, it's not all that great.  However, a slight risk is up for the yellow shaded counties.  At this time, it does not look like the event last Saturday.
While the threat for hail, wind, and a tornado will be low, flooding is the biggest concern.

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