Saturday, February 24, 2018

Severe Weather and Flooding Today (Saturday)

This will be the last in a series of disturbances.  Over the past few days, many have seen 6-12 inches of rainfall and any more will cause extensive flooding.  That threat can't be understated.

The other problem today will be severe thunderstorms with high winds.  It won't take much to knock over trees because the ground is very saturated.  I think we'll have a tornado watch and tornadoes could be an issue today.  Please have a way to receive warnings.

I know there are many activities today including basketball games.  Not only should you have a way to receive warnings, you should also have a plan of action. 

At this time, I don't think the threat for severe weather will go into the overnight so you'll be able to sleep peacefully tonight.

ENHANCED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.  I EXPECT A TORNADO WATCH.

TORNADO THREAT IS MEDIUM
SEVERE WIND THREAT IS HIGH.  SEVERE WINDS ARE 58 MPH OR GREATER.  HOWEVER, I DON'T THINK IT WILL TAKE WINDS THAT HIGH TO KNOCK OVER TREES TODAY.
I'M NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT HAIL
OVERALL IMPACT
1PM - FUTURE RADAR - HEAVY RAIN NORTH WITH STORMS CENTRAL AND STORMS ENTERING WESTERN ARKANSAS.

3PM - LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS.  SOME SEVERE WITH HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND A TORNADO THREAT.

THE LINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE METRO AROUND 5PM.  IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AT ANYTIME TODAY, THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE AND THEY COULD BECOME TORNADIC

8PM, EASTERN ARKANSAS HAS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WILL BE FINISHED BY 9 OR 10
MOST OF THE STATE HAS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  AN AREA OF 2-3'' OR MORE COULD FALL FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING.

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