"The lack of May rain is alarming for summer heat and drought. These can have a tendency to feed back on itself and keep going. We need to break this soon or we may not get a break for a long time."
We need to break out of this pattern soon or it could persist. It's way too early for this to be happening. I'm looking for a substantial pattern change or something out of the tropics to break this dry spell, but I just don't see it at this time.
Remember, we had a tremendous amount of rain in February, then good amounts in March and April. Since them it has really stopped.
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| LESS THAN .3'' SO FAR THIS MONTH. WE HAVE SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THERE'S NO GUARANTEE YOU'LL GET RAIN. |
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| SINCE MARCH 1ST, WE ARE BELOW AVERAGE IN RAINFALL. METEOROLOGICAL SPRING ENDS MAY 31ST. |
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| WE'RE STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE YEAR, BUT THIS IS A LITTLE DECEIVING. 14 INCHES OF THIS FELL IN FEBRUARY! 53% OF OUR RAINFALL FELL IN FEBRUARY. AMAZING. |
The following maps are total precip anomalies over the next 16 days from the past few runs of the GFS. The brown shows where it's expected to be below average. Most of the state is in that category, except the far north. NOT GOOD! That takes us into June and we need a pattern change. The deeper we go into summer, the tougher that can become, but it's not impossible. We can also watch for any tropical moisture going into the summer months to help us out.
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