Sunday, January 28, 2007

First Surge Of Cold Here. How About First Surge Of Moisture???

AS I WRITE THIS, IT'S 29 DEGREES HERE WITH A WIND CHILL FACTOR OF 18. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE TEMP. CAN GET TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICITIONS OF 43 AND 44 DEGREES IT HAD ON SATURDAY. I WENT WITH 40 FOR THE HIGH SO WE'LL SEE. NEVERTHELESS, THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ON TOP OF US TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. DEWPOINTS ARE VERY VERY LOW. READINGS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20'S ACROSS THE STATE. THE HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A BRIEF WARM UP TO NEAR 50. THEN A SECOND, EVEN STRONGER, SURGE OF COLD ARRIVES TUESDAY. NOW ONTO THE FUN AND GAMES...

THE ABOVE IS THE SURFACE AND 850 CHART FROM THE ECMWF VALIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT HAS THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. GOOD SET UP FOR WINTRY PRECIP.??? NOPE!!!!

THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COULD RUIN ANY HOPES OF WINTRY PRECIP THIS GO AROUND. I LIKE TO SEE THE HIGH NORTH OF US WITH A NW OR NE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE CURRENT SET UP, IF IT PANS OUT, WOULD LEAD TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE, EXCEPT THE NORTHERN 1/4 WHICH MAY GET A WINTRY MIX. WE'LL SEE HOW IT WORKS SINCE WE ARE STILL EARLY IN THE BALLGAME.

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