Tuesday, January 30, 2007

New Preliminary Map

UPDATE... AS OF 6 PM AND LOOKING AT NEW DATA, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED TO PREVIOUS THINKING. OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS, ACCUMULATIONS COULD RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES. OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD, IT LOOKS LIKE SLEET/RAIN TO SOME LIGHT SNOW, TO FREEZING RAIN, TO RAIN, BACK TO SNOW...COMPLICATED, YOU BET. SOUTH THIRD, MOSTLY RAIN. IF NEW DATA SHOWS ANYTHING NEW THIS EVENING, THEN ANOTHER POSTING IS POSSIBLE.




THINGS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT BUT NOT SET IN STONE YET. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE VERTICAL. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF KEEPS IT BELOW FREEZING AND THICKNESSES AT AROUND 540-542 DURING THE EVENT. THE NAM IS BLASTING WARMER AIR ABOVE OUR HEADS AND KEEPING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE CRITICAL FREEZING LEVEL FROM LITTLE ROCK NORTHWARD. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT IN DURATION, BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE, A LITTLE CAN DO A LOT. THE GOOD NEWS, TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING WON'T YIELD TOO MANY ROAD PROBLEMS. READINGS WARM UP THURSDAY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICE BUILD UP. I AM PAYING ALOT OF ATTENTION TO THE NAM SINCE IT HIT THE LAST STORM. THAT'S WHY I THINK MORE ICE IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO START WITH THEN RAIN, THEN MAYBE SOME SNOW BY THE END OF THE STORM. STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY.

ALSO, THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WAVE ON THE POLAR BOUNDARY WITH A NEW FRONT FRIDAY. THIS WAVE, IF IT MATERIALIZES WOULD HAVE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF IT'S TRACK FROM COLORADO, THROUGH OKLAHOMA, AND INTO ARKANSAS. SINCE IT'S ON THE POLAR BOUNDARY, MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE LOW SHOULD BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT.

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