Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Wednesday PM Update...

It appears the first wave of moisture is here ahead of schedule by about 4-6 hours. The lower atmosphere is colder than the models predicted which is not surprising since arctic air always messes with those computer generated numbers.

We have reports of snow in northern Arkansas. All light even mixed with sleet just south of Harrison. So far only about a dusting to 1/2 is on the ground. The north could see up to 2 and maybe 3 inches before the entire event is over.

Now, for central areas. Since there is colder air at the surface. I expect more snow and sleet. The NAM and GFS are still only putting out .25'' of water equivalent or less. On a 10:1 ratio that would yield about 2.5 inches of snow. But I don't think the all the precip will fall as snow. If we are lucky, I would say accumulations will be from a dusting to one inch. Higher amounts towards Conway, Morrilton, Clarksville, over to Heber Springs. Those areas could see 1-2 inches in the worst case scenario.

Precip. over western Arkansas, for the most part, not hitting the ground. It is in a few spots and will continue to moisten up the atmosphere throughout the afternoon. Also, radar returns in NE Texas are increasing a bit as well. I expect precip to start hitting the ground by mid afternoon. It will be light and in the form of snow/sleet. The next wave is still on for tomorrow PM.

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