Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Record Breaking Heat?

Noon Update... Coming up in a new post this afternoon, I have an exclusive interview with the most well known long range forecasters, Accuweather.com meteorologist, Joe Bastardi.  The entire 10 minute interview will be available soon.  We discuss the current heat wave, the winter forecast, the following severe weather season, and global warming.   You don't want to miss it.

9:30 AM Wednesday Update... Welcome to day # 74 of 90 degree+ temperatures and day 12 of 100+ temps.  The average temperature this summer is now up to 85.78 degrees which is well into 1st place for hottest summer of all time in Little Rock.


I have BIG, BIG news for all of you weather enthusiasts out there.  Details later today!

NOON VIDEO UPDATE...


video


10 PM Monday Update... We hit a record high of 106 Monday and we could set another one Tuesday. The record is 104 set back in 1987.  


Below are updated graphics tracking two other key records.  We're on track for the hottest summer ever and we could break into the top 5 number of 90 degree days. Stay cool and stay safe.


Data from the National Weather Service in North Little Rock
This is through Monday, August 2nd



2 PM Monday Update... Have you ever wondered how the heat index is calculated?  Remember, it's the combination of temperature and humidity.  This is what it "feels like".  The higher the moisture values, the less your body is able to cool itself.

HI =    -42.379 + 2.04901523T + 10.14333127R - 0.22475541TR - 6.83783x10-3T2 - 5.481717x10-2R2 + 1.22874x10-3T2R + 8.5282x10-4TR2 - 1.99x10-6T2R2
where T = ambient dry bulb temperature (°F) R = relative humidity (integer percentage).



Here are a few things the equation assumes...


Dimensions of a human. Determines the skin's surface area. (5' 7" tall, 147 pounds)  

Clothing cover. Long trousers and short-sleeved shirt is assumed. (84% coverage) 

Core temperature . Internal body temperature. (98.6°F) 

Determines metabolic output. (180 W m-2 of skin area for the model person walking
outdoors at a speed of 3.1 mph) # Effective wind speed. Vector sum of the body's movement and an average wind speed. 


Clothing resistance to heat transfer. The magnitude of this value is based on the assumption that  the clothing is 20% fiber and 80% air.

Sweating rate. Assumes that sweat is uniform and not dripping from the body.

8:30 AM Monday Update...  Welcome to day 72 of 90 degree+ heat and day number 10 of 100 degree plus heat.  Here's some good news, it's looking more and more likely we can take the temperature down a few degrees by the end of the week.  Don't get too excited though, it's still going to be HOT!

I'm watching the tropics very carefully.   An area of disturbed weather is way out in the Atlantic and the Tropical Prediction Center is giving it a 90% chance for development.  IF it has any impact on our weather, it will be in 10-14 days.  Once this develops, I will put some links on the computer model page to track the storm.


Yesterday (Sunday), it was amazing to see North Little Rock hit a heat index reading of 121 degrees.  Several locations managed to reach 115 or higher and the National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning.  This is not just hot, it's dangerously hot. 

9 PM Sunday Update... I wanted to answer a question in the comment section about rainfall in 1954 compared to 2010.  During the entire year of 1954, Little Rock received 37.82 inches.  June had .63'', July had 1.27'', and August had .33''.  

So far this year in Little Rock, we have received 22.85''.  The total amount of rainfall for June and July was 3.60''.  


10 AM Sunday Update...  It's official, if summer ended today, it would be the hottest summer on record in Little Rock by average temperature.  We have now surpassed 1980 and 1954... absolutely amazing.  What makes it even more interesting, as stated below, we haven't had a single record high temperature.  The heat is very consistent and overnight lows are quite warm.  

I do not see ANY significant cool down this week.  The ridge of high pressure remains very strong through Wednesday.  It could weaken just a bit by the end of the week which could take two or three degrees off the high temperature.  In my opinion, what's the difference between 103 and 100?  It's still HOT!

In many of these circumstances, the tropics come to life and that can break a heat wave.  The 00Z European model does develop a strong tropical system and moves it into the Gulf of Mexico the week of August 8-14.  We'll see how that unfolds. 


21 comments:

The Weather Fanatic said...

Todd,

These string of 90 degree days will challenge 1980. I don't think I got my first bike until 1981, so lucky me huh!? It is amazing that we are challenging the hottest summer ever without breaking any records. I can't remember the last time it was this humid for so long. I'm hoping this next string of heat keeps the dewpoints out of the 70's, but I don't see that happening. It won't really matter anyway if the dewpoint is 68 and the air temp is 100!

I'd like to bring up another point that not a lot of people are talking about yet. I know you don't like long range forecasts that try to predict 3 to 4 months out, but it sure does feel like we'll have a warmer winter. If La Nina takes shape, will we see a repeat of January 99? I sure hope not, but that would give us plenty to talk about on Arkansas Weather Live if we are dodging Severe Weather this Winter and Snow or Ice Storms. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

I just want to play golf again without drenching in sweat! Doesn't look possible, especially with lows near 80..maybe by late September..

The Weather Fanatic

Weatherclipper said...

The heat is on! Wow it’s hot!
I love the new weather blog. Todd, you have done it again. You set the pace for weather media my friend. I am glad to be on your team.
It is hard to believe this summer could rival 1980 and we have not see a 105F or 107F reading anywhere in the state. The humidity and dew points this summer have had a major impact on our weather. I think it’s odd to see one of the hottest summers in history and not be in a drought. Just when you think you have seen it all, we see something new. The dew point is keeping our night time lows way above normal and that is setting the pace for the record heat. Most of us think of high temps as being the big driver for record heat. You have to look at both low and high temps to get the average.

With this hot weather pattern setting up we could be in for some of those 105F to 107F reading over the next 4 weeks. We will have to keep an eye out and see if the ground gets dry enough. The ridge could break down or more tropical moisture comes in form a tropical system. This interesting weather pattern does make the weather a little less boring this time of year.

Weather Fanatic – I remember 1999. If my memory serves me right, we did not see any below freezing weather until late December that year. I think that was the latest date ever recorded for a freeze in LR.

Weatherclipper

sara said...

on my brithday on 22 of august of 1980 what was the high than

jimmylee42 said...

Hello everyone. We are in to the mean heat now. I'll be interested to see Joe Bastardi's long range winter forecast. Maybe it will make me fill cooler.

Weatherclipper-I remember 1980 like it was yesterday. I remember 1954 like it was day before yesterday. 1936 was a little before my time. Those were the summers that had the bone dry weather that allowed the temps to get to that 105 degree mark. It happened many days in a row in 1980 during at least two heat waves that summer.

Anonymous said...

It is Hot!!!

Just wanted to comment on new web design, it really looks good!

Sonic

Anonymous said...

Well I'm out of the contest as of today. Already had 8 days of 100 degree + and just now beginning August! Although if I would have looked closer I should have noticed that Adams Field reaches 100 a lot of days when no one else does. Wish we could have used the N. Little Rock station instead. As of today it looks like about 100 or 101 is the highest it has been going but the forecast is showing 104 to 105 for the next week.
Mitchell McDill

Anonymous said...

I remember 1954 as a child--hot and dry, very dry. Can you compare rainfall across Arkansas in the two years 1954 and 2010? Some say it didn't rain all summer in '54. There was not much AC in those days either, open windows and perhaps a fan was about it. Thanks for checking.

L. Johnson

Anonymous said...

We got to 106 degrees at 4:17 pm here in Crossett and that was in the shade.

Kenneth Swan

Shack said...

WOW, and tomorrow is supposed to be hotter????, UGH!!!

Again Todd, new site is great!

Alan said...

thanks for the updates Todd. However with the new site I can't hit the blog with my BlackBerry. I think I saw some other twitter people say the same.

Will you all be able to fix that?

Alan

cb6000 said...

Hey, gang. The new site looks great, first of all. I've been through quite a variety of weather over the past several weeks. It was definitely hot when I left AR for CA. When I arrived in Houston's Bush Intercontinental, there was a huge thunderstorm over there on July 17. Torrential downpours, gusty winds, and frequent dangerous lightning. When I got to coastal/slightly inland Southern CA, weather was great. When I was in San Diego, highs never made it above 70, and lows were in the lower 60s. While Arkansas has had a really hot July (and now we're in August), San Diego and parts of Southern CA had experienced below average temps. San Diego had one of the coolest Julys in a long time. Being back in AR since July 31/Aug 1, the weather back west really spoiled me. It's been a unpleasant summer in Arkansas.

Greg Reddin said...

Well I don't know about Bon Jovi, but I'm sure glad you banned George Michael from your computer :-)

Greg

Anonymous said...

cute baby!

snowenthusiast said...

I saw a sign today (I can't remember what store) but it read 112 degrees around noon. I think that was incorrect but that concrete does heat up fast

Anonymous said...

hey does anyone know what joe b's longrange forecast is for arkansas this winter

Anonymous said...

well if anyone puts any stock in joe b's long range winter forecast then arkansas will be warmer an dry this winter. an less snow then normal. oh well hopefully he is WRONG. last feb 8 inch snowfall in little rock has spoiled me lol

Anonymous said...

i hope joe B is wrong on his winter outlook he. has all of arkansas, oklahoma, texas, tennessee warmer then average an dry. Little Rock had 8 inhes of snow this past winter i was wanting a repeat of last year, or maybe even more. Does anyone know what joe B's summer forecast was this summer and if he has been or target or if he was off

Tammy Boyce said...

I miss my winter friends...I would rather be tracking snow than heat. That's unusual for me. That just means you guys made this last winter an unforgettabe one...oh...and the snow did too.

Anonymous said...

August 10, 1936 looks like the hottest day in Arkansas modern history. Threats assessment for today calls for excessive heat on August 9-10 with the old home state in the middle of the circle.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif

Could we threaten to approach the 100 and teens next week? Damn, hope not!

Anonymous said...

nice interview todd with joe b, looks like mr b is not giving little rock much of a chance for a snowstorm or ice storm this winter.Joe thinks the ozarks will be the most south it gets, oh well as good as joe is mother nature will have the last say so, usually she has a few tricks up her sleeve. come on cold winter!

Anonymous said...

This Joe B looks like he has it all planned out, looks like arkansas, okla, tex might as well just keep the shorts out all winter we mite as well not even talk snow or ice here because mr b knows it all. He may be good but he dont know everything