Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Is The Heat Finished?

I hope you enjoyed the break in the humidity!  Andria and I took Blake out for another wagon ride Monday evening and it felt fantastic.  The high Monday was 95 with dewpoints in the 60s.  How sad is it that we think 95 degrees feels good?

Tropical storm "Danielle" did not materialize, but the area of low pressure will bring some rainfall to portions of southern and eastern Arkansas.  Check out the computer model page for our exclusive model "Futurecast" and look at the projected rain totals over the next 60 hours.

So are we done with the triple digit temperatures?  To steal a phrase from Mr. Lee Corso on ESPN... "Not so fast my friend".   The ridge does try to rebuild in the long term, but it is anchored a little further west which could keep Arkansas under a north to northwesterly wind flow aloft.  This COULD bring a few "not so hot" fronts into the state, BUT ahead of any front, it can get quite hot again.  The long range numbers from the GFS are flirting once again with the century mark.  It's extremely important for those of you who look at the GFS MOS numbers to understand they trend towards climatology in the long term.  Meaning, if the average high is around 90 degrees, the model output will take high temperatures towards this number day 5 and beyond.

Here's the good news, we are running out of time to hit 100 degrees.  With the end of August in site, the sun angle is getting lower and lower.  As a matter of fact, we will lose almost an hour of daylight this month alone and our average high temperature for the year peaked several days ago.

The last item I wanted to bring up is the Tropical Prediction Centers new "hatched" areas with percentage probability for development.  I like the concept, but have found wild swings in the percentages from 0 to 90 back down to 0.  I know we're dealing with the weather and mother nature, but swings like that in our 7 day forecast would raise some questions.  I have a poll up so we'll see how you feel about it.

We're tracking several possible records this summer and you can see them below.  Thanks to the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock for the data.

2010 Avg. Summer Temperature so far is  86.27
2010 100 degree days is 19
2010 90 degree days is 90
2010 Consecutive 90 degree days is 52

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Todd,

As a point of clarification to some of the charts even if the current temp is the next record can you add another column to a few of the charts? Something that shows what the old record was like what was the old #6 or #3 record so we know how far "ahead" we are.

For example on the following charts:
-100 degree days
Is 18 days the next number so we are 6th? Can you add the next column even if we beat it? So we know by how much we beat it? If multiple years most recent is fine.

-90 degree days
Is 87 the next number so again we are currently 6th? What would otherwise be next?

-Consecutive 90 degree days
Is 49 day the 3rd so what was 3rd till then.... again if multiple years mention it along with the most current year of that record.

thanks for the chart updates

Alan

jimmylee42 said...

Todd-

Thanks for the stats and it brings to mind again what a summer that 1954 could have been. It was bad enough as it was, but what if we had as much concrete and asphalt and buildings around back then to absorb and hold the heat. I would estimate we would of had maybe 55 days of 100 degrees or more and average summer temps of in the range of 87.2 degrees if 1954 had the same stuctures as we have today. I also imagine air conditioning was 25% or less in place if compared to today.

KenZ said...

Consecutive 90 degree day stats are sort of meaningless. Take 1954 for example. Had July 19 of 1954 hit 90, there would have been 96 consecutive days of 90 or above that year (53 consecutive days 20 July-10 Sep 1954 plus 42 consecutive days 07 June to July 18, 1054). So that ONE day that it didn't get to 90 in 1954 lowered the consecutive 90+ days to 53. (NWS site). Still...no doubt it's HOT.....