Tropical storm "Danielle" did not materialize, but the area of low pressure will bring some rainfall to portions of southern and eastern Arkansas. Check out the computer model page for our exclusive model "Futurecast" and look at the projected rain totals over the next 60 hours.
So are we done with the triple digit temperatures? To steal a phrase from Mr. Lee Corso on ESPN... "Not so fast my friend". The ridge does try to rebuild in the long term, but it is anchored a little further west which could keep Arkansas under a north to northwesterly wind flow aloft. This COULD bring a few "not so hot" fronts into the state, BUT ahead of any front, it can get quite hot again. The long range numbers from the GFS are flirting once again with the century mark. It's extremely important for those of you who look at the GFS MOS numbers to understand they trend towards climatology in the long term. Meaning, if the average high is around 90 degrees, the model output will take high temperatures towards this number day 5 and beyond.
Here's the good news, we are running out of time to hit 100 degrees. With the end of August in site, the sun angle is getting lower and lower. As a matter of fact, we will lose almost an hour of daylight this month alone and our average high temperature for the year peaked several days ago.
The last item I wanted to bring up is the Tropical Prediction Centers new "hatched" areas with percentage probability for development. I like the concept, but have found wild swings in the percentages from 0 to 90 back down to 0. I know we're dealing with the weather and mother nature, but swings like that in our 7 day forecast would raise some questions. I have a poll up so we'll see how you feel about it.
We're tracking several possible records this summer and you can see them below. Thanks to the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock for the data.
|2010 Avg. Summer Temperature so far is 86.27|
|2010 100 degree days is 19|
|2010 90 degree days is 90|
|2010 Consecutive 90 degree days is 52|