Sunday, August 22, 2010

"Fall-Tastic" Air On The Way!

Well it's about time!  The air heading our way will give us an early taste of fall weather, but I fear that it may not last long.  More on that in just a little bit.

Below is an animation of our exclusive model "Futurecast" (Sunday AM run) showing dewpoint temperatures slowly dropping Monday into Tuesday.  Another front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with the air mass we have all been waiting for.  If the latest data is correct, it will be the coolest air we have felt in at least two months.  The Sunday morning long range models indicate highs not getting out of the 80s in Little Rock Thursday and Friday with overnight lows in the 60s.  If this happens, some locations in northern Arkansas could drop into the 50s for lows.  Am I buying this forecast from the computers?  Maybe.  I have a hard time believing with dry air in place and a dry ground, readings won't jump into the lower 90s.  That's still a huge improvement over what we have experienced lately.

You will also notice a picture of a grasshopper on the window at Channel 7.  KATV Chairman, Dale Nicholson, has developed some of his own weather folklore that has merit.  From the time these green creatures start gathering on the windows at the station, some fall air can be expected in two weeks.  He observed this last Wednesday.  If the nice air gets here a week earlier, I have absolutely no complaints.

So is this it?  No more triple digit heat?  I'll once again quote the great Lee Corso, "not so fast my friend".  The ridge builds back the following week.  With no rain chances in the forecast, the ground will remain very dry.  It won't take much to send temperatures back into the 90s to near 100.  You also have to remember, it can and often does hit 100 degrees even into September and with a year like this, I don't think we're out of the oven yet.  I also included NOAA's 8-14 day outlook which does indicate above average temperatures.  I personally hope we don't see 100 for a long time, but this is Arkansas so we'll wait and see what happens.

video

Grasshopper visiting the windows at Channel 7
NOAA's 8-14 day outlook from Sunday afternoon.

2 comments:

The Weather Fanatic said...

Todd,

Love the Dewpoint Futurecast Forecast! Cool graphic. I agree with you that we'll still probably see 90, especially at Adams Field on Thursday. It will feel great though with a high 50 to low 60 degree dewpoint. Maybe we'll see some low to mid 50 dewpoints! That would rock, although elevate the fire danger.

Thursday will be fun to watch to see if we set the new record for consecutive 90 degree days. That is very hard to do and just shows us how hot this summer has been. I remember some nasty triple digit heat well into September of 2000 I believe. That was the same summer that we saw 111 or 112 here in LR if my memory serves me correctly.

Looking forward to near normal/slightly below temperatures! The mornings will feel refreshing..even 72-73 will feel nice..65-70 a bit chilly!!

The Weather Fanatic

Anonymous said...

hey anyone if the tropics are not as active as originally thought would that change joe b"s longrange weather outlook or noaa