Thursday, November 18, 2010

Arkansas To Go "Cold Turkey"

9 AM Friday Update... MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT....

The first "Arkansas Weather Live" is tentatively scheduled for 7:30 PM Tuesday.  Here's some even bigger news.  We will give away 3 coupon codes for the iPhone app, "RadarScope".  We will also give away a blog shirt.  You must watch to find out how to win.

Click here for more information on "RadarScope"

The official "Arkansas Weather Blog" shirt

Get ready for a shock considering where we've been and where we're going this weekend.  Temperatures will only increase over the next several days ahead of an approaching powerful cold front.  We could easily see temperatures drop 25-35 degrees from the beginning of next week to Thanksgiving.  REMEMBER, THIS IS STILL CONSIDERED THE LONG TERM AND THINGS WILL CHANGE.

At this time, I feel the chance for frozen precipitation is almost non-existent.  We're looking for a frontal passage sometime Wednesday with rain and thunderstorms.  After that, the coldest air so far this season will begin to settle into Arkansas.  To what extent is still in question, but I thought I would show you just one of the long term models that was run Thursday showing maximum high temperatures for a 6 hour period.

6 hour max temperature (map valid Thanksgiving at 6 PM)

6 hour max temperature (map valid Saturday Nov. 27th 6 PM)
Arkansas and LSU will play at War Memorial Stadium Saturday afternoon and there's the chance it could be the coldest game in the series with the Tigers. With the help of Steve Sullivan (gathering the dates) and the National Weather Service (past climate data) I have listed the high temperature each day the two teams met here in Little Rock since 1994.

There's a good chance we'll have the first Arkansas Weather Live of the season next week.  Check back and follow us on twitter for the latest on that.

Daytime high temperatures in Little Rock for AR vs. LSU

11 comments:

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone, I beleive Todd is right about no winter weather with system,coming next week"sorry". However, I still beleive that parts of Northern Arkansas will see some light snow with this front.It's still a ways out so you can't right it off completely. It is starting to look like just a dry much colder period,According to most of the long range computer models consistancy.I am sure our storm is coming sooner or later, alot of times we get them when we least expect it.LSU/ARK fans bundle up,it looks to be cold & breezy.

Kevin Conant said...

According to the forecast disscussion...Little Rock Arkansas...


The EMCF model is hinting at a shortwave or low pressure in Southeast Arkanas Late Wed Night into Thur Morning...A wrap around light snow would be possible due to the possibility of near or freezing temps...


If this senario varifies light snow would be possible from 1am to 7am Thursday with clearing skies thereafter on Thanksgiving...

I do believe this has a chance of verifying given this model has a tendecy to be more right than the GFS...

The probability right now is a 20%

Weatherclipper said...

“The Great Model Bust” brought to you by the La Nina Winter of 2010/11.

The cold air is on the way for most of the nation just in time for Thanksgiving. It will feel more like Christmas! The temperature contrast across the nation early next week will be impressive as temps deep just below zero along the Canadian border and record warmth precedes the arctic boundary for much of eastern half of country. There will be a developing low pressure system accompanying the strong cold front that will scoot to the north of Arkansas. Showers and Thunderstorms will break out ahead of the cold front, but I don’t see a big severe weather outbreak at this time. Once the cold front comes through moisture shuts off and cold weather will dominate for a few days.

As the NW flow sets up a series of upper level lows rotate through and there could be a chance of a snow flurry or sleet pellet for NW Arkansas. I think the chances stay north of Clinton.

Can we trust the models this winter? I think we have a good chance of seeing the models bust big time several times this winter. Next week could be one of those busts. We will just have to see. The pattern will swing from one extreme to the other and as we get deeper into winter the extremes will become more pronounced. This means chances of severe weather and a few ice/snow/mix events. Look for a few days when the temps are in the 70’s in central and south Arkansas and Fayetteville is at 32F. Moisture will be our issue when we have arctic air in place, but two or three of these extreme events will bring some winter weather to parts of Arkansas. December could be an interesting month as the storm track sets up and arctic door opens up. Lets pray the ICE stays away!

The Models can’t be trusted this winter and will catch a lot of us weather enthusiast off guard.

Bobby Powers a.k.a weatherclipper

Justin said...

Since we are talking models...anyone know why The Weather Channel and Accuweather have such different forecasts most of the time????

Chad Gardner said...

Coupons for Radarscope... Nice. I'd like to say I'm a little jealous, but I'm very happy with my technologically superior Android phone, so I'll just wait patiently for them to come out with a version for me, lol.

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Very Good Point Weather Clipper, Just like todays run of the GFS shows a 2-4 inch snow for south Ark & North La for late next week, Hey, It may just be one of those crazy runs, but it may be a trend.. We Shall See..

Drake said...

Everyone is always talking about models..where can I find these to view?

Anonymous said...

GFS showing the front backing up bringing some freezing rain/snow for far northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas for Thursday night.

Paul (The Wxguru) said...

Drake,
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Can't wait for the first live blog!!!

Paul the Wxguru

Kaleb Turner said...

Hi everyone! I haven't commented in a while and would just like to say a couple of things. And I know this is a weather blog and I will talk about weather, but I would also like to say something else first.

Tomorrow my family is leaving to go to Cleveland, OH. The reasoning for this is.... My brother was diagnosed with Epilepsy when he was in the 5th grade (now in the 8th). We are going to the Cleveland Clinic for more invasive testing to see if he is a possible candidate for brain surgery. We will be in Cleveland for up to three weeks. I would really appreciate if everyone would keep our family in your thoughts and prayers. We have been going through a lot this past week and would really appreciate it. Also, If anyone knows anything on the Cleveland Clinic, post because I would like to know more.

On the weather side of this post, Cleveland may have some interesting weather while I am there. I have checked models and forecasts for their extended forecast and iy is showing some snow showers. So I will definitely be posting pics and status's on Twitter (@kalebt97). I will also send pics to the blog. Hopefully we will get some snow or wintry precip. so I can send and post pics.

As for the weather here in the great state of Arkansas, I believe that this years winter weather season is scheduled to arrive early. Based on blog posts, forecasts, models, etc. thats what it is looking like. As for the precip. type, I believe that it will be in the form of ice or freezing rain. I just hope that it doesn't all occur when I am in Cleveland. That would make me angry.

Anyway, Please keep my family in your thoughts and prayers. We all would really appreciate it. I will continue to update. I will hopefully get some pictures posted and sent to the blog.

Thanks so much, Kaleb Turner

Alan Joes said...

Sorry i will not be able to attend the first Arkansas Weather Live event. ... Don't have an iPhone anyway. ... Just need to find the right contest for a t-shirt :)

Alan