Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Video Blog Discussion Tuesday Nov. 30th

3:30 PM Tuesday Update...  We're talking about a system that's a week away here.  There is nothing guaranteed, especially when we're talking about the weather.  The two major long term models I looked at today now show mostly dry and cold.  Sometimes the models tend to lose features, only to bring them back at the last minute.  Then forecasters are left scrambling and back tracking to their original forecast.  I'm not saying that's the case here, but I'm not throwing in the towel just yet.  I'll admit, I'm not hopeful.  There's nothing I would like more than a good snow in the middle of the Holiday season so I'll keep watching the data and I'll let you know right here on the blog.  There is one thing all the models do agree on, get ready for much below average temperatures next week.

19 comments:

Shack said...

Great info this morning Todd! And I got part of meteorology 101 as well. Lets hope we get a little of something.

Everyone have a great one.

Anonymous said...

Hi im HUgh i say little rock gets no snow this system or the next system so on and on . Its the same thing every year people see a system on the models get thwre hopes up and it always either to far north or south or to warm, etc etc. Sure we will have a few cold nights but with no precip. Lets all just get over this an talk about severe storms or something else. Look wvwn joe B said little rock will be on the outside lookin in thus winter on snow and ice., remember he is the expert lol.

Anonymous said...

Hugh is too negative! Boooo Hugh!!!!

Anonymous said...

What does 12z Euro say?

Anonymous said...

I say the winter weather possibilities are zip this year for central ark meaning conway, little rock area guys i keep reading these tweets an reading posts from people on here an i just laugh. u want snow ur in the wrong part of the country. now if u want mild to cool days and cool nights with no snow or ice this is perfect. i say little rock wont get a trace of snow this year i can understand hopeing but guys we go through this every year. ninja an todd and bob your wasting your tweets an time on these posts its The one and only Hugh im signing off

Caleb said...

Hugh you shouldn't be so negative. Just because somebody says something about the forecast 2 months before we see whats going to happen doesn't always mean hat will happen.
I think you should stop being so negative and keep your hopes up instead of down. Its a week away and "its Arkansas Weather" wou never know what will happen. :)
Todd, do you see anything new on the models? I sure hope we can get something out of this storm.

Anonymous said...

Hugh you choose to be on here. if you don't like whats posted don't look at it. Todd, Ninja, Bob, and others do a great job of showing us what COULD happen down the road. This is such a fun site don't be sooo negative.

Anonymous said...

Oh caleb im just picken around its all in good fun i figure its good humor anyway i still honestly think this will be a snowless winter i hope im wrong but just my opinion its hugh im signing off

Shack said...

Oh, how I forgot Hugh! Lol. Debbie downer is BACK (and for that matter, I am too. I've been poking around some, just not like the winter months).

Again, thanks Todd for the blog and taking the time to interact with all of us. Also a big thanks to Ninja for your contibutions as well. And (one more time) to Clipper, Fanatic, Guru and all of the of the posters for your insight and comments. It's what makes this a great site to visit!

NOW, Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

Shack!

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone, Just a few thoughts on this boring Tuesday evening.Hugh, I hope it snows so deep that you have to dig a cave just to get into your door lol.Anyway, back to the weather, I know alot of people have heard snow, no snow, cold dry, Any of this is possible, I personally think that system out in the Pacific that could be our weather maker for wintry weather is just not going to dissappear, Once it reaches the coast of California better upper level data samples will be taken & the forecast models will get a better handle on the situation in the coming days.Even if it doesn't get cold enough for a big storm, The upper low could make little snow event all on its own, I have seen it time after time, If your in the path of the low this time of year, you could see alot of snow as the low passes over you,I am not saying any of this will happen, but I give it a 75% chance of some of us seeing winter weather next week either from true winter storm or the upper low.I dont know if anyone has noticed that over the past few runs of the GFS its trying to hint at the idea of what the Euro model has been showing, I am talking about the overall pattern of the GFS,even some of the the GFS ensembles are showing some sort of winter weather. Anyway its going to be a long winter & One thing I can say there will be storms & rumors of storms, sooner or later we will get our chance if history & climate data repeats there self in any fashion. I beleive by Thursday alot of us will know alot more about this possible event.. We Shall See...

Anonymous said...

bob thats true about the upper level low. lats winter in feb not sure what day around the 20th i believe. there was no chance of snow and we picked up 3 inches of a heavy wet snow from 7am to 11am that day.

Tiderian said...

Great show as usual, Todd. I like seeing the more in-depth stuff than you can throw in on the newscast.

At some point in the future, could you maybe put together a show to get those of us up to speed who are just starting out into weather geekery? I mean, I know the basics, but I'd like to see a discussion of the model charts and how to read them.

Oh, by the way...I hope it snows a foot! :-)

Amyb726 said...

I sure do love that Snowbird Bob! His hopeful attitude is bound to bring snow our way very, very soon! Thank you, Bob!! I'm starting my snow dance now!!!

The Weather Fanatic said...

Hello weather geeks and enthusiasts around the Natural State and Mid-South!

We have a lot of excitement on the blog again, and it's great to see. Todd has done a fabulous job with the website (Ninja too) and it will be fun to watch this season! We sure have come a long way with the best and only blog in the state compared to last year!

Ok, I must say that I'm jealous that I "may" miss out on this weather event. I will be gone next week as well Weather Clipper. My destination: Sedona,AZ! I'm going to get away from everyday life and can't wait to see it!

In case you're wondering, Sedona sits about 30 miles south of Flagstaff at around 4500 feet in elevation, so I won't be far at all from the snow! If it doesn't snow in Sedona from this system, I'll head up to Flagstaff. They are at a much higher elevation (7,000 ft), so it should be fun! I'm arriving Saturday evening, so according to the model runs, I may have something to report on Sunday! I will post on Twitter and send pics when I can!

As for our system next Monday into Tuesday, the models will flip flop until we get within 3-5 days of the event, so don't trust them. In fact, if the GFS says it won't do anything, don't buy it. On the flip side, if the Euro says it will, don't buy it. If both agree in addition to the NAM within 36-48 hrs, then get ready! Someone will be surprised in the Mid-South and of course someone will be disappointed. I have a feeling Snowbird Bob won't have to travel very far to witness some winter weather. I will close with my theme: "Expect the Unexpected"

PS: It's cold outside. Very reminiscent of a cold, frosty early Dec morning 35 years ago (according to my Dad) when the Fanatic was born!

The Weather Fanatic

Amyb726 said...

Finally got to watch the video discussion! Thanks, Todd, for explaining all the possibilities! I love this weather blog! Been hooked on the weather since my first Gusty in about 1974. I sure wish I knew where that sketch was...priceless! Anyway, so excited about any possibility of winter weather. I love that you can discuss things on this blog that Arkansas Weathermen would never dare to utter on air this far in advance. I feel like I'm in on a potentially big secret!! Fun, fun, fun!! I'm a big fan!

WeatherNinja said...

Take away the models and go at it old school. Back in the day before we had access to computer models all you had to do was look for two things. One was was the cold air in place (step outside) the second was look for cloudiness off the Southern California/Baja coast. Look for signs that the subtropical jet was pushing the moisture east/northeast across the desert SW USA and across Mexico toward the NE. Anytime you saw that setup..in most cases it lead to some sort of wintery precip. Look for the same with the system next week. Will the cold air be so dense and the trough so deep it pushes the moisture to the south? It will be fun to watch. And as far as Hugh goes..Hugh..care to place a bet we don't go snowless this year? I won't let you off so easy like I did in February.

Greg Reddin said...

I'm with Tiderian and was considering posting the same thing. I'd love to see a "reading weather models for dummies" course sometime. But I'm learning quite a bit just watching you flow through them. Good stuff. Thanks for sharing.

Greg

Anonymous said...

Happy belated birthday, Fanatic! I hope you had a great day. :-)

jimmylee42 said...

Todd-

You, Ninja or any model watcher, I just looked at the 006z GFS. Two questions for you. Is that the latest GFS? And looking at the 138-150 hour is it showing approx 4-8 inches of snow in central and southern Ark?

Know its too far out for forecasting, but just wondering if I'm reading it somewhat correctly and if that is the latest GFS model.