Friday, December 10, 2010

All Aboard The Arctic Express!

Noon Sunday Update... The arctic express is here!!! BRRRR


I'll have a new blog post this afternoon dealing with an historic winter event in Arkansas.  It happened almost 30 years ago.  You won't want to miss it so check back!

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The train has left the station and is on the way for an extremely noticeable, but short visit!

I don't expect the front to move through central Arkansas until later Saturday afternoon, then the cold air will pour in the area with STRONG northwesterly winds creating wind chill values in the single digits up north to teens and 20s elsewhere.  The latest GFS computer model really shows how cold it COULD get Monday with lows in Little Rock in the teens and highs not getting above freezing.

As far as the chance for snow... I don't see any.  There's a small chance northern Arkansas gets a few flurries, but don't count on it.

Below is only one piece of data.  It's Channel 7's exclusive model "Futurecast".  I think it may be a tad too cold Sunday morning and afternoon, but it could have the right idea.  Other guidance shows it not quite as cold.  As you know, Futurecast did a fantastic job with the snow the other night keeping it out of central Arkansas and focusing it more on west central and southeastern areas of the state.

I will have post Sunday you don't want to miss... stay tuned and stay warm!!!!!

Exclusive Futurecast temps. 8 PM Saturday.  Temperatures tumble!

POSSIBLE lows Sunday morning
Possible Highs Sunday Afternoon

13 comments:

Ash said...

Brrr.. its going to be cold. I'm wondering how can it be around 28 or colder degrees and rain? Wouldn't it be snow or does it have to do with cooling aloft? Real curious on this maybe someone can help. Still hoping for some snow. Apparently something good maybe coming next week. Fingers crossed!

Anonymous said...

Todd

According to a well-known met at a tv station in Shreveport: he says he can view your "FutureCast" data, so it isn't "exclusive" as you call it. Just saying. :)

jimmylee42 said...

Ash-

Back in 2000 we had two big ice storms in Little Rock in December. Temperatures were mid 20's with moderate freezing rain. If the cold air is shallow enough you can have freezing rain with 28 degree surface temps and lower. People were without power for days in both of those storms in 2000.

Jason H said...

When we had our REAL bad ice storm a couple years ago."Over 2 inches" It was 26 degrees and raining good for 4-5 hours at one time.NASTY.

Shack said...

Hey Todd,

Army-Navy is on at 1:30 for your football fix, heck, I'm going to watch it to get my fix cured.

Shack

Caleb said...

Hey Todd & All Bloggers,

I was just going to ask someone, the sun is coming out here in Malvern and just wondered if that meant if we could get any storms. Also is there any chance of snow or flurries tonight? I am hoping for the best.

Kevin Conant (weatherman15) said...

This Afternoon: The cold front is really close to your area or moved through so surface based thunderstorms for that matter are almost non-existent for Central Portions of Araknsas...

A shower or two is possible through 3 pm but that little shower that moved through about 45 minutes ago was about it

Tonight: Snow appears very unlikley for Malvern...less than 10% chance but I am also hoping for the best

Anonymous said...

Very light snow falling at my apartment in Fayetteville. Temp is 34 and falling fast

The WeatherNinja said...

Freezing rain is caused by surface temperatures at or below freezing while just above the surface temperatures are above freezing. With temperatures in the mid 20s the subfreezing air would not be very deep and probably only extend less than 1 or 2 thousand feet while just above it temps could be in the 30s or even 40s. We see this set up typically when arctic air is set up at the surface but a south or southwesterly flow aloft brings in moisture.

If the air was cold, then a warm layer, then cold again any precipitation that was frozen (snow) would melt into rain as it passed through the warmer layer, then would refreeze as it worked its way through the other cold layer and in this case could cause both freezing rain or sleet.

If the cold air is cold through all layers..it will support snow.

It depends on how deep the cold air is. Remember, arctic air on the leading edge is very shallow and that is why you hear that the mountains in Arkansas can slow it down or stop it all together. If it was only 1000ft deep it would have a hard time getting past mountains that are 1500-2000 ft in elevation.

That was a simple explanation..hope it helps.

Shack said...

Holy windy Batman! And brrrrrr too!!!

Stay warm!

Shack

snowenthusiast said...

I wish accuweather is "accu" 100% of the time because they are saying Monday December 20 rain and snow in the morning w/ collapsing temps during the day making a mostly all day and night snow event. Cross your fingers and GFS and euro, and mother nature, this is your time to make snow lovers happy lol :)

Kevin Conant (weatherman15( said...

Accu Weather is not the only one suggesting a Rain and Snow mix...

The weather channel shows a 60 percent chance of rain and snow mixture with a 60% chance of snow Monday Night...

Intrested to see what the NWS Forecast Disscussion says and see what happens...

I think there could be some snow for Arkansas...We shall see

Jason H said...

Ive been saying it all along. Our first good event is coming around that time frame. Ill put money on it....The Northern 3rd will be white this year for Christmas.