4:45 PM Wednesday Update... I will have the top ten weather events of 2010 posted this evening. It's very in depth and it includes plenty of video and pictures.
7 AM Wednesday Update... It's nice to see the state covered up with rainfall. We needed more days like this last summer and fall. This rain and the rain on New Years Eve will keep Little Rock out of the top 10 driest Decembers and top 10 driest years.
Most of the state is now under a slight risk for severe weather on New Years Eve. The place in the state most vulnerable to severe weather will be the eastern half. The amount of instability will determine the degree of severe weather and right now, that amount is lacking. This could still change if the timing of the front slows and breaks in the clouds occur ahead of it. Let's hope this becomes a "non-event". Any day of the year is bad for severe weather, but New Years Eve is especially worse.
I am very busy working on my annual top 10 weather events for 2010. As always, it's very in depth and takes time to put together. I will hopefully have it here on the blog later today.
We started this week off with lows in the teens and we'll be in the 60s and 70s Friday. That's Arkansas weather for you. As I always say, "there's nothing normal about Arkansas weather." This time of the year, such a temperature change can come at a cost... thunderstorms. I'll have more on that later.
So far this month we have had .24'' of rainfall. If the month ended today, it would be the 2nd driest on record. However, that won't happen. We should get plenty of rainfall to keep this month OUT of the top 10 driest Decembers. The first round of rain arrives tonight and Wednesday. Once this slug of moisture passes, the air mass will become mild and moist as the pattern is changing a bit.
A huge trough of low pressure will come out of the western United States. I have to give credit to the GFS for seeing this last week. Although specifics were wrong, it did point to a major system in the central United States to end 2010 and start 2011. The main worry with this system is its severe aspect. With it being only Tuesday, this can and will still change. I think the best chance for severe will be across the eastern half of the state Friday afternoon. This is dependent upon instability levels. It's early, so I don't want anybody to let their guard down. I'm hoping for plenty of clouds and rainfall ahead of the approaching front to keep things more stable. I'll keep you updated.