Saturday, January 08, 2011

"Snow-Mageddon" Post #2



11 PM Saturday Update... The evening data continues to show a south Arkansas snow with a good area of 2-4'' across much of central and southern Arkansas.  There will be a swath of higher amounts across southwest, south central, and east central areas.


We have a big day planned on the blog Sunday tracking this snow.

8:15 PM Saturday Update... The NAM is looking more like the GFS and going with heavy amounts of snow across the south.  Remember, it's only one piece of the weather puzzle.  This is almost an extreme scenario.  The map below ends Monday at midnight. CLICK  ON THE IMAGE TO ENLARGE

00Z NAM POSSIBLE SNOW DEPTH BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY

 5:40 PM Saturday Update... I know there are a ton of you almost nervous about the snow storm.  You want it to happen, but your worried it won't.  While there area still disagreements among two of the major models, they do agree it will snow.  The afternoon NAM says 1.6'' while the GFS has about 5''.  So you can see why our 2-4'' forecast looks good based on this data.  The European model even shows a bit more with .6'' of water.   That would equate to a few inches of snow.  Timing is also an issue.  Right now the NAM is the slowest while the GFS is faster bringing in the precipitation.  I suspect it will arrive in central Arkansas around 3 PM to 6 PM and really start to accumulate from 6 to midnight Sunday.  All of this is subject to change of course.  Below you will see the snowfall projections for Sunday and Sunday night.  The graphic below that shows POSSIBLE snowfall with the second wave of moisture which arrives Monday afternoon and evening.  This will mainly affect northern Arkansas with a dusting to one inch.  The third graphic below shows the afternoon run of the NAM and it's 84 hour snowfall forecast.



Possible Snow Totals.  A dusting to one inch will be possible across the north

POSSIBLE totals Monday afternoon with the second wave of moisture



18Z NAM

Even though we are within 24 hours of the storm, there are still uncertainties.  The morning run of the NAM shows 2.3 inches for Little Rock while the GFS shows 4.6 inches.  Both models agree the highest amounts will be across southern Arkansas.  A second round of LIGHTER snow will move through northern Arkansas Monday afternoon and night.  There could easily be enough to whiten up the ground there.  Right now, it appears any accumulation with the second wave in central Arkansas will be under 1/2''.  After that, very cold air will settle into the state with highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits and teens.

Remember, to send your pictures to us Sunday and Monday to photo@katv.com.  Send your best one or two and BE CREATIVE.  Also, please make the file sizes small and under 1 MB.  We'll show a few on the air and on line.

We have a BIG day planned on the weather blog Sunday.  Please check us out and stay with us for numerous updates through the weekend.  Enjoy the video below and leave your thoughts in the comment section.




12Z GFS showing 120 hour snow totals
12Z GFS sleet totals
12Z GFS Freezing Rain

15 comments:

Omarrian Wilson said...

Im getting updates on the NAM giving Little Rock 2.5 inches wich is not much more. But its enough to shut schools down so I will take it. But I hope the GFS is right. B/c I want 4 inches.

snowenthusiast said...

I went to Lowes on McCain in North LR and they are completely out of snow shovels~bought the last one!

Anonymous said...

Does anyone think the winter storm watches could expand a bit more northerly?

Drake said...

Todd: What's up with Channel 7 Futurecast Snow totals calling for 10 inches of snow in El Dorado??

bimini butterfly said...

I read this quote some where today,"When it snows in the south it is always magical.." So true!

I am not getting any work done today. too excited about the possible snow!

bugg71654 said...

Oh how to make a girls dream come true! I am looking at the FutureCast I am seeing 8-9 inches near Monticello?? Does that include the possible sleet added into the mix here? No complaints about the measure at all! Let it snow but let everyone be safe and warm! Weather Hannel is really starting to notice that Arkansas really does exsist

Anonymous said...

I think we are going to start getting people to ask for Todd to go LIVE in the weather center!! I know I will watch and listen !!

Daryl, AE5WX said...

Winter Storm Warnings now cover much of central and south Arkansas, and extend into adjacent states. Go to weather.gov -- click on central Arkansas, and click on Winter Storm Warning for details. As noted earlier, no matter how much winter precipitation falls, hazardous driving conditions are all but guaranteed. The morning commutes Monday and Tuesday may be very difficult...the latter with refreezing and a lot of black ice.

Daryl, AE5WX

Shack said...

Honestly, with all the changes in the models, I guess we really won't know what we get until it gets here.

So in other words, the suspense is KILLING me, lol!

Eric said...

little rock i see 5.2 inches of snow, north little 5.1 inches of beautiful snow. and it this pans out just think we have some of january left and all of feb to go let it snow let it snow.oh yeh one more thing this is not a forecast just one mans opinion.

besnini said...

I have a question. The low, that I'm understanding is supposed to go south of us, has been over southern Arizona most of the day. Now it is over souther Nevada, does that mean the forecast will change? Is the low going to go more north. I was just looking at the "current weather" map on weather.com. I'm very curious :) Thanks

Anonymous said...

I think this is awesome a snowstorm on the way it will be the first snow in little rock since last feb when ee had over 7 inches in one day at the airport. lets hope for a repeat that storm was great with heavy snow all day. makes me want more bring it on.

Anonymous said...

Todd u are definately the man. You are no doubt the best weatherman in Little rock. Theres nothing like seeing when the snow is building in north texas and riding up the i30 interstate and when Little rock is at 30 degrees and.when that snow gets here. The anticipation is so fun. Watching that on radar will be awesome. If pans out schools could be out a couple days in the metro.

go4snow58 said...

It looks like the NWS in Memphis is thinking the storm will go further North with precipitation. Do you think the NWS in Little Rock will issue any winter weather advisories for the counties above the warning area?

Anonymous said...

Wow northern arkansas misses out on what could have been a good snow producer. Is there ANY good snow or ice storms for northern arkansas anytime soon? If someone could answer that for me that would be well appreciated.

Oh and for people who wimper and cry cause it barely snows in central or southern arkansas. I dont ever want to hear it after this event. Southern half is gonna get more snow thanthey usually get!