11 PM Saturday Update... The evening data continues to show a south Arkansas snow with a good area of 2-4'' across much of central and southern Arkansas. There will be a swath of higher amounts across southwest, south central, and east central areas.
We have a big day planned on the blog Sunday tracking this snow.
8:15 PM Saturday Update... The NAM is looking more like the GFS and going with heavy amounts of snow across the south. Remember, it's only one piece of the weather puzzle. This is almost an extreme scenario. The map below ends Monday at midnight. CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ENLARGE
|00Z NAM POSSIBLE SNOW DEPTH BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY|
5:40 PM Saturday Update... I know there are a ton of you almost nervous about the snow storm. You want it to happen, but your worried it won't. While there area still disagreements among two of the major models, they do agree it will snow. The afternoon NAM says 1.6'' while the GFS has about 5''. So you can see why our 2-4'' forecast looks good based on this data. The European model even shows a bit more with .6'' of water. That would equate to a few inches of snow. Timing is also an issue. Right now the NAM is the slowest while the GFS is faster bringing in the precipitation. I suspect it will arrive in central Arkansas around 3 PM to 6 PM and really start to accumulate from 6 to midnight Sunday. All of this is subject to change of course. Below you will see the snowfall projections for Sunday and Sunday night. The graphic below that shows POSSIBLE snowfall with the second wave of moisture which arrives Monday afternoon and evening. This will mainly affect northern Arkansas with a dusting to one inch. The third graphic below shows the afternoon run of the NAM and it's 84 hour snowfall forecast.
|Possible Snow Totals. A dusting to one inch will be possible across the north|
|POSSIBLE totals Monday afternoon with the second wave of moisture|
Even though we are within 24 hours of the storm, there are still uncertainties. The morning run of the NAM shows 2.3 inches for Little Rock while the GFS shows 4.6 inches. Both models agree the highest amounts will be across southern Arkansas. A second round of LIGHTER snow will move through northern Arkansas Monday afternoon and night. There could easily be enough to whiten up the ground there. Right now, it appears any accumulation with the second wave in central Arkansas will be under 1/2''. After that, very cold air will settle into the state with highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits and teens.
Remember, to send your pictures to us Sunday and Monday to firstname.lastname@example.org. Send your best one or two and BE CREATIVE. Also, please make the file sizes small and under 1 MB. We'll show a few on the air and on line.
We have a BIG day planned on the weather blog Sunday. Please check us out and stay with us for numerous updates through the weekend. Enjoy the video below and leave your thoughts in the comment section.
|12Z GFS showing 120 hour snow totals|
|12Z GFS sleet totals|
|12Z GFS Freezing Rain|