3 PM Saturday Update... I'm feeling a little under the weather today so I'm not going to have a full blog post until Sunday. As you know, the storm snow lovers were counting on will not materialize Sunday and Sunday night. I think a few rain showers will be possible and some snow showers across the north central and northeastern sections of the state will be possible.
The models are still trying to resolve a feature which will become a significant east coast storm later next week. Some of the upper level energy involved with this evolution should pass through Arkansas Monday night and Tuesday with a few light snow flurries, but not a big deal. There are even a couple of models (UKMET and the JMA) which try to crank up the storm further west into portions of southeast and eastern Arkansas Tuesday. I'm not buying that at all right now.
After reviewing the data over the past couple of days, it's becoming apparent that a southwesterly flow of air at the surface will develop at the end of this upcoming week. While it's still in the long term, if this happens, we can really crank those temperatures up well into the 50s and 60s. I don't think it will last long as the models show another arctic boundary pushing through the central United States with a strong and cold high pressure following. All eyes are also focused on the beginning of February. Some of the models show a storm trying to develop across the south. I can't get excited about that until we are within a 5-7 day window, but it's something to watch in the very long term.
Everyone enjoy your weekend and hopefully I'll have a video blog Sunday!
|Awesome Searcy Snowman|
Boston (Madison county) 6''
Calico Rock 5''
Bee Branch 3''
Des Arc 3''
Heber Springs 3''
Lead Hill 3''
Mountain View 3''
North Little Rock 1.4''
|Snow Totals Thursday|
Now onto Sunday afternoon. I'm not even going to pay much attention to the NAM model. I am very, very disappointed by its performance lately so I'm going to stick to the Euro and the GFS. This is a storm coming out of the northwest and these are usually moisture starved... not your typical set up for a good snow for Arkansas. The GFS brings some rain and changes it to snow Sunday afternoon and night. The Euro brings Little Rock .18'' of water which could equate to a couple inches of snow... BUT surface temperatures could be too warm initially for snow. The Euro has thickness values and upper level conditions supportive of frozen precipitation. Of course, all of this could change very, very easily.
I have updated the winter weather contest numbers. It's very interesting to watch how many are still in it to win it! You can access the entries and those numbers by clicking on the "Winter Contest" in the white bar above.
I'll keep you updated here and thanks for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog.