Thursday, January 20, 2011

Snow Wrap Up and What's Ahead


3 PM Saturday Update... I'm feeling a little under the weather today so I'm not going to have a full blog post until Sunday.  As you know, the storm snow lovers were counting on will not materialize Sunday and Sunday night.  I think a few rain showers will be possible and some snow showers across the north central and northeastern sections of the state will be possible.

The models are still trying to resolve a feature which will become a significant east coast storm later next week.  Some of the upper level energy involved with this evolution should pass through Arkansas Monday night and Tuesday with a few light snow flurries, but not a big deal.  There are even a couple of models (UKMET and the JMA) which try to crank up the storm further west into portions of southeast and eastern Arkansas Tuesday.  I'm not buying that at all right now.

After reviewing the data over the past couple of days, it's becoming apparent that a southwesterly flow of air at the surface will develop at the end of this upcoming week.  While it's still in the long term, if this happens, we can really crank those temperatures up well into the 50s and 60s.  I don't think it will last long as the models show another arctic boundary pushing through the central United States with a strong and cold high pressure following.  All eyes are also focused on the beginning of February.  Some of the models show a storm trying to develop across the south.  I can't get excited about that until we are within a 5-7 day window, but it's something to watch in the very long term.

Everyone enjoy your weekend and hopefully I'll have a video blog Sunday!

Awesome Searcy Snowman
There were some things that went right with the forecast and some things that went wrong with it.  Overall, I think it was a solid one, but in the immediate Little Rock area the urban heat island effect really showed up.  All of the concrete, buildings, and cars helped keep temperatures warm enough to prevent any accumulation.  As soon as you got into west Little Rock or further north into Sherwood, the snow accumulated from a dusting to .5''.  I started to account for this possibility in my forecasting last night.  Of course colder temperatures and more moisture brought 2-6'' amounts further north.   Here are some snowfall amounts reported by the National Weather Service...

Boston (Madison county) 6''
Calico Rock 5''
Fayetteville 4''
Bee Branch 3''
Deer 3''
Des Arc 3''
Heber Springs 3''
Lead Hill 3''
Mountain View 3''
Marshall 3''
North Little Rock 1.4''
Maumelle 1''

Snow Totals Thursday

Now onto Sunday afternoon.  I'm not even going to pay much attention to the NAM model. I am very, very disappointed by its performance lately so I'm going to stick to the Euro and the GFS.  This is a storm coming out of the northwest and these are usually moisture starved... not your typical set up for a good snow for Arkansas.  The GFS brings some rain and changes it to snow Sunday afternoon and night.  The Euro brings Little Rock .18'' of water which could equate to a couple inches of snow... BUT surface temperatures could be too warm initially for snow.  The Euro has thickness values and upper level conditions supportive of frozen precipitation.  Of course, all of this could change very, very easily.

I have updated the winter weather contest numbers.  It's very interesting to watch how many are still in it to win it!  You can access the entries and those numbers by clicking on the "Winter Contest" in the white bar above.

I'll keep you updated here and thanks for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog.


Anonymous said...

i see mr joe B changed his tune for the rest of winter. He now says cold temps ha ha like its taken a rocket scientist to figure that out. i think for little rock the snow came in at the wrong time today if it would have been night it would have alot better chance of sticking to the ground.

Snowbirdbob said...

Hello Everyone, First this is for Jason H, How did you do on your snowfall... & I havent't updated on the Blog since I gave my personal prediction back on Monday, Jan.17. The reason was because I liked my predictions & had no reasons to change my thinking. I did however update my predictions on the snowfall for the Little Rock area yesterday, Monday I said the Little Rock area could see up to an inch of snow, I went with 2-3 inches, didnt quite get there, maybe in a few spots around town,closer to 2.. Regarding the winter weather event or events poss coming up late in the weekend & the middle of next week, I will give my full detailed outlook,tomorrow evening or Sat. morning on the new blog Todd is about to start, The upcoming poss events looks to be much more complicated than these past two events...Hope for more...We Shall See..

Snowbird Bob said...

Hello Everyone, These are my personal opinions, so take them as that,as I have been saying for the past few weeks now, I beleive our coldest & possible most intense Winter Storm is still in front of us..As we head into the first week of Feb.1-7 I beleive, would could have our most intense Winter Storm so far this season, followed by a Brutal Arctic Outbreak that could Rival many of our Cold airmasses we have seen over the last 20 years,We could see temps as cold if not colder than the opening of Feb.1-10 1996.Alot depends on if we can get a good snow cover..I beleive the cards are lined up..Could we have the Royal Flush of Arctic cold, very possible.. The stage is looking good, good snowpack being laid from the Northern Plains & Mid-West, Very Cold Arctic Air building over the pole & Canada, Very High Pressures,Ridging over the West coast all the way thru Alaska..But, up until then, it want be no cake walk..I expect to see Below normal temps & the possibilty of several winter weather events, nothing as of now seem to be significant..As far as the poss winter weather this week,the best chances should be the I-40 corridor North with light amounts...Stay warm...We Shall See

Anonymous said...

Great job snowbird i will be hoping thats the case i would like to get some snow in little rock metro this time.

Will said...

What's up with this large cluster of snow in Kansas this morning? Sure looks like it's heading southeast. What are the chances of it making it south before drying up??

Anonymous said...

OK, no more snow. If I read the entries correct, I'm the current leader on contest #1. Any more snow and I'm out. Todd, please don't forecast anymore snow until next year. Thanks in advance, Brandon.

Jason H said...

Hey Snowbird Bob. I got just under 3 inches in Pocahontas. Temps took a dive last night after the snow skies cleared, and wind stopped blowing. I got down to 12, my 2nd coldest night of the year.

I said the Northeast would beat out the Northwest on this past storm. We had lots of reports of 3-4 inches with one report "Calico Rock" of 5 inches. We may not have got more, but we got pretty close. My sweet spot hardy got around 3, Calico Rock is just South of Hardy too.:-(

Anyone recall the March 09' clipper type Low that models was calling for 2-5 and it brought 6-12 inches to Northeast Arkasnas? This system Sunday/Monday looks almost like that one, not as much moisture....but just saying, maybe we will get another 2-3 out of it Anyway. I was very happy to get those "almost" 3 inches:-). My total snowfall for the year is now 4 inches. I hope we get at least 2-4 more events. Jason

tboyce1979 said...

ANyone see anything next Wed./Thurs? NWS is starting to put small chances for snow in the forecast then? How are the models looking again for this weekend???

jimmylee42 said...

Only 43 degrees for the high in St Charles WLR. We had more snow and still some on the ground. All the areas in the sun are snowless now. Still have a deck covered. Those marginal temps we had in LR Thursday with the snow made a difference with every change in terrain elevation.

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