Monday, January 03, 2011

Video Blog Discussion January 3rd

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

nice video Todd, I hope the gfs could be right. What day do you think we will know more about this? because im not going say anything to any1 because when i do it backs off

dotnetengineer said...

Lets just hope the models stay consistent and verify. Not only would we get snow but I'd have a better chance of getting the tickets just in time for the Golden Corral opening in Conway :)

nlrweatherman said...

Very interesting pattern next week, Extreme cold is not always favorable to heavy snowfall, but it will be fun watching the storms for this weekend and the next wednesday (jan 12th). I would really love to have some snow days, im not ready to go back to school

Shack said...

Happy New Year to everyone!

If those models stay consistent this week, the blog should get very interesting this week.

Great job Todd, as usual.

Shack

Caleb said...

I know this isn't for us, but it is close to us. Has anyone loooked at the forecast disscussion for Norman, OK here is a piece from it. I feel likw we are gonna have alot of fun on the blog this comming week and weekend and into next weekend "PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE
STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD... SNOW AND/OR ICE... OR PERHAPS
ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME."

Jason H said...

IF it is going to be as cold as what models are saying, then you can forget about moisture. It may do something right before the COLD hits, or when the cold is being pushed back a little, but it is VERY rare to have that kind of cold here with moisture availble...Maybe a clipper, but nothing huge. That is some cold air for Arkansas....if it makes it.

Drake said...

FROM NWS SHREVEPORT: PERHAPS THE BIGGEST STORY OF THE FORECAST IS JUST BEYOND THE NEXT
7 DAYS AND THAT COMES IN THE FORM OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE 2ND WEEK OF JANUARY. THE SETUP IS A DEEP UPPER VORTEX ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WHICH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS POLAR VORTEX IS ALLOWED TO DIG INTO THE PLAINS BY
A LARGE BLOCKING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 570-580 DAM
AT 500MB ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
ALASKA. MEDIUM RANGE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWING A 1064MB HIGH
LOCKED UP ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA BEFORE SPILLING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FRIGID AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE OR TUESDAY (JANUARY 11TH). WHILE
TIMING IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM WITH AIRMASSES SUCH AS THESE...THIS
AIRMASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST BY FAR EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THIS REGION THIS WINTER SEASON.

Jeff said...

Guys, I live in the windwoood subdivion where this bird problem was. I can tell you 100% weather had no role in this. There is a flock of birds( has to be at least a million) that roost at night just on the outside of our subdivion. They fly in everyday at dark and leave at sunrise. Its really a sight to see the black cloud of birds that flys overhead for 30 mins to an hour everyday. that being said, my guess on what happened was the loud noises from all the gunshots and fireworks forced em in the air and when they took flight in the dark when they are normally not active it caused them to fly into one another. For every 5 dead it seemed there was one that would be still alive on the ground injured hoping around. just my two cents Jeff

Mitchell McDill said...

Oh Todd- yes winter months are fun if the weather pattern get wintry but you can't deny the beauty of a 105 degree August day sitting on the porch listening to cicadas winding up their tune in the trees and watching thunderheads build off in the distance. Actually I like the extremes of our weather like winter and summer the most.

Anonymous said...

How much snowfall would the state get? According to the national weather service everybody is gonna get some sort of winter precipitation?

Daryl Stout said...

The last part of this mornings (Jan. 4) Forecast Discussion from the NWS Little Rock notes "ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THOUGH...AND THAT IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY."

The models always have a hard time with cold air and storm systems, but even the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show below normal temperatures for the region. So, things could get interesting. However, if we do have winter weather, I'd prefer snow, instead of freezing rain...especially after doing Arkansas Skywarn operations this past weekend with the amateur radio operators...and the devastating tornadoes across the region. I understand the soundings from NWS Springfield, and NWS Little Rock were almost identical. The difference was that Little Rock was between the dynamics/forcing, and instability...and that a wave near Springfield may have caused the mesocyclones to develop. Had similar conditions occurred here, it could've very easily been another Jan. 21, 1999 episode.

Daryl, AE5WX

Anonymous said...

Hi todd, I came to see your Bird info....haha. Now, who's confirming it was "fireworks"? You folks down their must have some Big fiework shows...hahaha. I did stay and watched your 1.3.11 vid blog. Good job. Interesting set up we've been watching for a week or so now on American WX forums. I'm in MN, so we could expect to see those -30 or so temps. Speaking of MN, so you like winter? Well, come up we've got plenty. I've got a 30" snowpack in the yard too!!