Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Video Blog Discussion... Model Madness

1 PM Wednesday Update... Model madness continues in the long range with huge differences remaining after this mornings run of the GFS and Euro.  I typically favor the Euro, but the GFS hasn't done a bad job this winter so its solution does have credibility.

We'll start off with the European as it shows an area of surface low pressure moving into the Great Lakes.  You can clearly see a strong surface high in southeast Montana.  This is 1040 mb or maybe slightly higher.  The Tuesday morning map featured the surface low in NE Arkansas with rain for much of the state and possibly changing over to some snow before ending across northern AR.  This shows a very cold Wednesday with low clouds likely across the NE half of the state and MAYBE flurries.  Winds would be howling out of the north at speeds of 15-20 mph as temperatures would not get out of the 20s across the north and only low to mid 30s elsewhere.  As that surface high shifted south and settles on the state, lows at the end of next week could easily be in the single digits and teens statewide.  Go below for the 12Z GFS...

12Z Euro valid Wednesday Feb. 2nd at 6 AM

The 12Z GFS says, "what storm"?  It's chilly, but not nearly as cold as the European is above.  There's some light precipitation across Texas, but that's just about it.  It appears there is weak low pressure zipping through the southeastern United States. 

So you can see the model madness continues.  I suspect we'll end up somewhere in the middle with an area of low pressure which travels further south.  It's a week away so let's just be patient and watch these models sort themselves out.

12Z GFS valid Wednesday Feb. 2nd at 6 AM



Video streaming by Ustream

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Model madness sounds about right lol. Me thinks the GFS is handling the cold air extemely poorly.

weatherclipper said...

Todd and weather bloggers,

Todd you have done a great job keeping us updated on what the long range models are forecasting. I would like to point out how wrong they were on the last storm 7 days ago. The models showed a 500mb low forming in the SE and moving up the east coast. The models corrected a couple of days before the storm and moved it back 600 miles to the west. This just goes to show you the model runs can’t be trusted more than 36 hours out. It is fun to watch how they correct themselves and give us big surprises. I am sure Mother Nature has at least one more winter surprise for most of Arkansas this winter. Not sure if it will be a big snow like we saw Jan, 9th, but at least more school closings and travel disruptions. I would expect to see a winter mix freeze things up for a day or two before winter lets up on Arkansas.

One thing for sure more arctic air is lurking in central Canada and looks posed to make its way south and east. One change I see in the pattern is there is nothing locking in the cold and it seems to what to move in and out. This does not look good for winter storms in Arkansas. It also makes long range forecasting tough. I would expect Northern Arkansas and points east of Arkansas to continue to see bouts of snow and ice the next 6 weeks. This La Nina is strong and I see no signs it will let up soon. The pattern will keep repeating its self with only small fluctuations. If we do get another period where the Greenland High moves back west and locks in some cold air who knows, we could see another decent snow storm for part of the state.

This spring could get interesting for NW Arkansas as a blizzard type storm could bring a big snow dump in this region before the end of March. I would keep an eye on that. That could blow up the rest of winter weather contest. That could also mean severe weather further south. We will just have to see. The Gulf of Mexico has only had a brief cool down since the December cold. Temps down there have held in the 60’s most of January. That means the Gulf water temp should rebound quickly this year and push warm moist air into Arkansas a little earlier than last year. That could mean a couple of early severe weather outbreaks in late Feb and March.

The weather is always fun!

Bobby Powers a.k.a weatherclipper

Jason H said...

Sorry to hear about your snow bombing out on ya Bob. Like you said, it happens. I really thought some parts of Western Tn would win big with a real good heavy snow, didnt happen. Well it sure looks like the next 7-10 days is really going to be boring in Arkansas, outside of some nice weather Frida-Saturday. Hopefully we can get something going by Mid Feb-March. B O R I N G

Anonymous said...

The NWS section about our winter was fascinating. It raised some questions for me. It appears that a strongly negative AO index brings us colder and drier winters. What causes a strong negative AO? Does it always happen in a strong la nina period? Is la nina what causes a strong negative AO? How long will this la nina last? It looks like the next big weather event we discuss might be a drought. This makes me want to go back to college and study meteorology.......

Susan

Anonymous said...

i remember just last friday eeryone on twitter talking about ''POSSIBLE'' WINTER STORM for arkansas around the 1st or 2nd of feb. i knew there was a 90 percent chance the models would change. oh well i think the snow for this year for ark is over, maybe the fayetteville, harrison could see a little more but central and south what we have seen in snowfall should be about it but im not complaining,little rock points south are above our annual snowfall average.

Snowbird Bob said...

Hello Everyone, As most of you know I made a 7 hour drive to snow chase in Jackson,TN, Now back at home 900 miles in 2 days for 2 INCHES OF SNOW!! What a let down, This is my second worst snow trip bust, The 1st was calling for 12 Inches in Joplin,MO & got a dusting..On this trip I followed my own model reading,NWS,Todd,Ninja,WX-Guru,So this goes to show you that mother nature always has the last say & always will, Another thing this shows us is Dont trust the models to much,really on upper lows,Just like whats coming up over the next 7-14 days,I do beleive we will see our coldest temps of the season in the Feb.1-7 time-frame, we just need a major winter storm to top it off,& that is certainly in the cards..The models are acting like Bingo,you never know what number is going to pop up next lol.. We just need to sat back & relax,hope for the best..Oh, I will not humiliate myself & send pics to Todd, Heck, yall got more than that on yalls last event in the Little Rock area...So long story short major cold & possible winter weather is on the way...We Shall See

Cumulus Maximus said...

im surprised all the guys that tweet all day have not mentioned the 18z and 0z GFS. Amarillo to Oklahoma City and eastern Oklahoma have received very little snow this year and you have to figure a real southern plains snowstorm that spreads east through arkansas is overdue. heck will all these northwesterly flow storms that dont really develop till they are east of us. snow depth map from twisterdata.com by next wedneday from the 18z and 0z should help get snow lovers excited. both runs of the GFS at these times paint an almost perferct picture of what it takes for a big snow in AR. check it out before it takes it away.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=18&fhour=162&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false