Thursday, January 27, 2011

Video Blog Discussion... Groundhog Day Trouble?

12:15 PM Thursday Update...  Even though this model will change several times, I wanted to show you why the 12Z GFS poses an ICE problem and not a purely rain event.  Again, this is not what we are sold on happening, but I just wanted to show you who read models what this set up on this mornings model run shows...

In the sounding below, you can see the freezing line marked 0 (0 degrees Celsius) runs diagonally from the ground up.  The red line indicates temperature and it's to the left of the 0 line at the surface.  This shows you the shallow nature to the arctic airmass next week.  As you go up in elevation, notice it shifts to the right of the 0 degree line, this is a warmer layer aloft where snow will melt into rain as it falls into it.  The question remains, will the the subfreezing surface layer be thick enough to freeze the water droplets into ice (sleet) or will it not have enough time and freeze on contact (freezing rain).  OR will the cold air be deep enough to keep it all snow?  There's even the question, will any of this happen at all?  This is several days away and will change.  This gives everyone a chance to see what we COULD potentially be dealing with on Groundhogs Day.  You must also remember, the models ALWAYS underestimate the strength of cold, dense arctic air.  The timing of the arrival can be problematic as well.  It tends to arrive earlier than model forecasts.  So much to watch next week!

Watch the video blog discussion below for an even more in depth look at the potential next week.

12Z GFS showing an ICE potential

As we have said here for about a week now, there's potential to really warm temperatures up Friday and Saturday.  This is what I call "false spring" or even a "January Thaw".  Readings could go into the 60s and lower 70s, but it will NOT last long!  There's the potential to have more than a 50 degree swing in temperatures from this weekend into the middle of next week.  The computer models are in better agreement about what will happen next Tuesday and Wednesday, but there are still differences.  Hold on tight, the next week will be a WILD, WILD  ride.  Check out the video below...



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7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Todd since it will be so warm will we not have Tstorms sunday?

Jason H said...

I know things will change, but this time I am EXCITED about the set-up of this one. I have seen this one before. Ice followed by a good snow. That is how N.E.A usally lands thier Winter Storms. I was hoping yesterday when I watched the blog,when one model was Illnois, and the GFS was in Mexico, that they would meet in the middle "Southern Arkansas" and that is what just about happened. Yes, I have my hopes up again, but that dont take much.:-)

Eric said...

Well i know things change in the weather world more then i change socks but it is nice to see the weather channel has a 70 percent chance of a wintry mix in little rock on tuesday with a high in the low 30s.

tboyce1979 said...

NWS now has a slight chance of rain and snow in their forecast for Tuesday night and Wed! My daughter may have her a REAL Winter Wonderland Birthday party :) Here's to wishful thinkin!!!

Bimini Butterfly said...

I think we need an Arkansas Weather Live soon...maybe monday night???

Anonymous said...

Hey snowbird i think if this storm pans out u should go work for noaa. I think u predicted this for quite sometime. I know alot can change between now and tuesday we may end up getting zip but least the potential for snow is there for now.

Anonymous said...

Well looks like it will be all ran for us now everthing is coming back warmer warmer, whats your thoughts Todd?