In the sounding below, you can see the freezing line marked 0 (0 degrees Celsius) runs diagonally from the ground up. The red line indicates temperature and it's to the left of the 0 line at the surface. This shows you the shallow nature to the arctic airmass next week. As you go up in elevation, notice it shifts to the right of the 0 degree line, this is a warmer layer aloft where snow will melt into rain as it falls into it. The question remains, will the the subfreezing surface layer be thick enough to freeze the water droplets into ice (sleet) or will it not have enough time and freeze on contact (freezing rain). OR will the cold air be deep enough to keep it all snow? There's even the question, will any of this happen at all? This is several days away and will change. This gives everyone a chance to see what we COULD potentially be dealing with on Groundhogs Day. You must also remember, the models ALWAYS underestimate the strength of cold, dense arctic air. The timing of the arrival can be problematic as well. It tends to arrive earlier than model forecasts. So much to watch next week!
Watch the video blog discussion below for an even more in depth look at the potential next week.
|12Z GFS showing an ICE potential|
As we have said here for about a week now, there's potential to really warm temperatures up Friday and Saturday. This is what I call "false spring" or even a "January Thaw". Readings could go into the 60s and lower 70s, but it will NOT last long! There's the potential to have more than a 50 degree swing in temperatures from this weekend into the middle of next week. The computer models are in better agreement about what will happen next Tuesday and Wednesday, but there are still differences. Hold on tight, the next week will be a WILD, WILD ride. Check out the video below...
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