|Prelim. Snowfall potential for Thursday.|
I'll have more later this morning.
3:30 PM Monday Update... WOW, the blog is getting very active again with the possibilities for winter weather. I encourage you to watch the video discussion below if you haven't. I really lay out the situation and what could go wrong with the forecast. I have looked at the data this afternoon and I have no changes. This will be a light and quick event, but enough to cause travel headaches, especially across northern Arkansas.
The European model has two more winter weather possibilities over the next 10 days. Besides the one Thursday, there is some concern Monday (January 24th) and again Thursday (January 27th). We're talking about the long term here so don't get too excited, but at least we have something to watch for awhile. It's rare in Arkansas to get hit after hit after hit with winter weather events, but if you get locked into a pattern, anything can happen. As my bio says on twitter... "following this crazy Arkansas weather". There's nothing normal about it and that's what makes us the weather geeks we are!
During the 10 o'clock newscasts Sunday night I showed how far behind the average we are in terms of temperature. For the month of December, we were 2.2 degrees below average. This month, we are 3.8 degrees below average so far. You may remember the forecast from NOAA and from Accuweather indicated above average temperatures for this winter. You can also watch Accuweather meteorologist Joe Bastardi's prediction by clicking "winter forecast" in the white bar above. The reasoning behind this was a strong La Nina. While that is occurring, there may be other factors dominating our weather. It's only the middle of January so a big flip to warm could still take place in February. I'm not a big believer in long term forecasts. The meteorologist who specialize in this do tremendous work, but it's extremely difficult trying to predict the weather several months down the road.
]Stay with us here on the Arkansas Weather Blog, I'll keep you updated with the latest!
This system coming in poses different forecast challenges compared to the big Sunday snow a week ago. We're going to be dealing with a variety of precipitation across Arkansas and it all depends on the depth of the cold air and how far south the intrusion sets up. I still firmly believe the northern portion of the state sees the worst of it. There are two key points I need to hit on: the system will not have heavy precipitation like the last storm did and it's a quick mover. As you will see in the video blog discussion, there is much to consider when trying to pin down the details and it will be a challenge for forecasters to stay one step ahead of the models. Check it out!
|9 AM Thursday GFS. Mostly Rain with frozen precip. north|
|Noon Thursday. Rain with frozen precip still across the north|
|Colder air moves south with snow across the NW portions of the state at 3 PM|
|The rain begins to transition to frozen precipitation for the northern 1/2 of the state at 6 PM|
|All precipitation changes to snow before ending by 9 PM Thursday (Light)|